Analysis of 100M Taxi Trips in Chicago Shows Usage Declining 35% per Year | Hacker News Reader

Analysis of 100M Taxi Trips in Chicago Shows Usage Declining 35% per Year

toddwschneider.com

96 pointslil_tee81 comments

Bad for taxi drivers, good for tourism.

I've done business in both Tokyo and Hong Kong. Historically, a taxi in Tokyo has been ~3x that of the same distance in Hong Kong. When considering where to Holiday, that significant additional expense is a consideration.

I'd also be interested, if there is enough sensitivity in the data, to see a correlation between taxi cost and DUIs.

What are some popular cities where Uber/Lyft is unavailable or regulated in a way that makes it difficult to use? It would help me make sure I don't plan any vacations there.

Vancouver, BC, Canada. :( I fortunately live close enough that I just drive up there and thus have my car, but otherwise it sucks -- especially since so much of the interesting stuff is in more suburban parts.

Austin, TX (recent change)

Calgary, AB is another one. Felt like going back in time when I visited from the bay area.

Berlin and Germany in general I think.

It's all of Germany, uber got basically banned by court order. In Berlin they coorporate with a local taxi company, but uber as in other countries cannot exist in Germany.

> It would help me make sure I don't plan any vacations there.

Is this your number one priority to visit a city? Cultural offerings, architecture, meeting new people, that are my priorities. Which brands of private transportation by car are available or not is not a worry for myself.

As is difficult to picture it by myself, what makes it so important for you that you have or not that brands over other considerations?

That comment floored me as well. I spent almost a third of last year traveling for both business and pleasure, in both the US and overseas and maybe took an Uber four or five times. I can't begin to imagine a mindset that would lead me to plan trips around Uber availability.

Maybe it's just convenience. If I was traveling in a pair or so, having Uber/Lyft in a place I would go would immediately give me a way to get around the city.

I don't know if taxi prices are as relevant in a city like Tokyo which has excellent public transport.

Haha....

Absolutely, Tokyo is mind-boggling in the sheer numbers of people they move daily.

For the same reason, taxis are generally preferred by those who just don't want to deal with those crowds. I lived in Tokyo for a couple of years, losing 15 pounds in the process. When people commented on my new svelte physique, I joked that I was "on the JR Exercise Program". (JR = Japan Railways)

more likely the effect of food change and not eating meat with hormones.

Definitely was from walking to and from train stations, standing on trains, sometimes for multiple hours/day, running to make connections and walking up and down a couple dozen flights of stairs.

Not sure why that earns a down vote, but there you have it.

None of those things exert many calories at all. People usually over estimate how much exercise contributes to their weight.

Last year I had a job where most of my commute was sitting or standing in a bus. Now I have a 10km round trip which I cycle or walk. It's had no effect on my weight what so ever.

You're correct. The affect of exercise is vastly overrated on weight loss [1]. The more you exercise, the hungrier you get, the more you eat. That being said, you're healthier if you're overweight and exercise than if you're overweight and don't exercise. BUT, if you're going form COMPLETELY sedentary to walking to and from train stations, up and down stairs, and standing on the train -- that's likely to have a dramatic effect. Completely sedentary lifestyles and depression and obesity tend to go hand and hand because of hormonal / neurotransmitter issues.

In any case, changing your diet is likely much more effective for losing weight.

[1] https://www.dietdoctor.com/does-exercise-promote-weight-loss

I would agree that those alone will have little impact, but they also tend to be indicative of an overall different life-style. It's hard to over-shop for groceries, for example, when you have to carry everything home on your person, and soft drinks tend to be more difficulty to acquire in bulk because of the weight.

You do have to adjust to a different life style when you rely entirely on public transit, and it allows for more positive choices just because of necessity.

I don't own a car and usually walk or cycle everywhere I need to go. This has been my lifestyle for practically all of my life. And none of what you say rings true to me. It's very easy to me to carry to go to the supermarket and walk out carrying an absurd amount of calories.

I actually eat worse when I go out walking, because I am more likely to stop at dairies (convenience stores). In a car I am I tend to go out of my way slightly to get some better food.

Well, I will grant there are exceptions to my expectation, and it might just be my own bias coloring it; I tend to avoid "bad" foods pretty regularly, cook my own meals, and I am not very tempted by convenience stores at all.

I would easily accept that it's still subject to personal bias more strongly.

Definitely was from walking to and from train stations

I don't see how you could possibly know that for sure.

True... I couldn't know it in a scientific sense. But I went from a commute from garage to parking lot and a weekly outing to the bowling alley, to all that walking, standing, and stair climbing. It was a couple of hours daily by the time you added it all up. That's a good, I dunno, 400 calories daily of additional burn? So I had to be eating more as well, or I would have dropped a lot more weight than 15 pounds in 2 years.

400 calories is a half hour running, for comparison. I think you'd be closer to 100-150 calories, as standing does not consume much (not saying it is not unpleasant, but as energy consumption go, it's pretty negligible) and walking consume way less than running.

It's always good exercise, and probably helped to look slimmer. However, as other mentioned, losing weight via exercise is not that easy, and a good diet is way more important

People living in urban environments are lighter than people living in suburban or rural environments.

This same thing happened to me when I moved to a small town and stopped driving for a year. I lost 20 or 30 pounds.

Most of it ends around midnight though. After that it's taxi or bust (or wait for first train in a manga cafe)

As an aside, the stench of alcohol in the trains nearing last trains are pretty unpleasant.

and trains in tokyo are usually packed so you cant sit.

Trains in Tokyo are usually packed during rush hour. If you are traveling off peak (as a tourist often would), you'll usually find lots of seats open. I've never had trouble getting a seat on he ring line or another JR line, simply because I was traveling in the afternoon.

China on the other hand...

GP lives and works in Japan so he doesn't have the luxury of avoiding peak hours.

Also, as much as great public transit is nice for visitors (I don't live or work in Japan, and being a visitor there is great), its primary concern should be its residents. (subway lines do get built using big migratory events like world fairs though)

Yes, but it isn't true that Tokyo trains usually don't have seats. If you work on a strict 8-5 schedule, then of course it usually won't have seats for you.

The yamanote line usually has seats during the day after peak hours but many other likes stay relatively packed even during the day lIke the chuosen.

Chicago taxis are roughly double the cost of an Uber/Lyft w/o surge pricing IF you're not crossing the city boundary. In my experience, the only time a taxi end up cheaper is if you need a flat rate to the airport during a time when waiting in traffic would get you destroyed by Uber.

Isn't it easier to just take the L to the airport in Chicago?

This largely depends on how much stuff you're taking with you.

And time of day, especially w/ bags

There are ways to carry your bags on the train. Many tourist travelers have no clue and should be punished for it. (I.e. using them to block the aisles during rush hour, blocking areas of the train etc)

They really shouldn't be punished; they probably don't know better. You can offer friendly advice if you think they're in a bad position.

It's still hard with really packed trains. You can not block aisles but they still take up space and it can be difficult to get on and off the train.

They do, they don't even look sympathetic about it. That's the worst part.

I ended up just berating a family coming back from an Emirates flight who just lined their luggage in the aisle from the back to the door and the back part of the train. They sat in the first few rows of the car. (they left rows of seats open, blocked, and I was blocked in at the back)

Lets just say. At that point of time, I didn't start with niceities the stop before I got off.

Honestly, you have that amount of luggage, take a cab or some sort of airport bus that is setup for people with luggage. Yeah, that family was obnoxious (or at least clueless) but crowded subways and commuter-type trains aren't intended for people with more than light carryons at most. (And even those can be a pain during rush hour.)

That was definitely one of those cases of where that family shouldn't have used the CTA. They should have used a taxi. It was a family of 5.

For the people not in the know: I was sitting on the far top right single seat. They were sitting in the first 2 vertical oriented row seats nearest to the door there.

https://assets.dnainfo.com/chicago_photo/2015/12/primary-tra...

Depends on source. Can end up being a 30 min taxi or a 90 minute public transit if you live somewhere not handy to the blue line (say, Rogers Park to Ohare)

I've never understood how you guys get to ohare. For me jump on the blue line and you're there.

Metra also goes to ORD. You need to take a shuttle from the lot, but at least the train has racks for luggage.

In traffic probably, if you have lots of bags and its not rush-hour or you aren't close to the train/in a suburb where you'd have to go downtown first then a car is much easier/faster.

Pardon my ignorance, but is there something in the cabbie's contract that restricts her from also being a driver for Uber/Lyft? I assume so; in Japan, this is not the case, because every time I hailed an Uber, at traditional cab driver appeared.

Presumably it would screw with the Taxi company's dispatch system. Also, the Uber/Lyft rate would generally be less than the posted rate for the Taxi.

> in Japan, this is not the case, because every time I hailed an Uber, at traditional cab driver appeared.

Uber actually has partnerships with some local taxi companies to do exactly that, in cities that treat it as less of a war between the two.

In DC, you can order a metered taxi via the Uber app.

Same in Chicago. If the metered taxi takes an inefficient route, Uber legally can not do a fare ajustment. It's nearly impossible to complain to the City of Chicago if it happens, so you end up having to pay whatever the meter displays.

Uber in Toronto does not allow you to use a car with taxi livery. Afaict it is Uber's rule, not the taxi company's.

Chicago has medallions. You as a driver are paying $x per hour to borrow one. Lets call it $5.

Would you take a Taxi fare for $20 (- $5 medallion rental = $15 profit), or an Uber fare for $15 (- $5 medallion rental you still owe = $10 profit)...

Even if it were legal or within the contract to do so (it may be, I have no idea), it would be a losing prop for a taxi driver to take an uber fare.

Err NYC also has medallions but Uber drivers don't need one. Why would chicago uber drivers need to get one?

Grandparent is not saying that they need to get one; almost the opposite: that it does not make sense for a medallion-owning taxi driver to also drive for Lyft or Uber.

Yes exactly. That is why a taxi driver would not also drive Uber. It would pay even less per hour than driving Uber in your own car.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and explain.

Usually, what Taxi's can do that uber can't is pick up riders who are hailing a cab.

That means if I'm walking down the street and see a cab, I can waive it down and it will take me to my destination.

I cannot do this with uber - the only way to get an uber car is through the app.

This is a subtle distinction but it matters and doesn't begin to get into the arrangements cabs have with hotels, airports, etc.

So what OP was saying is that if you're paying for the medallion, to recoup the cost youre incentivized to pick up normal taxi fares and not drive for uber, assuming you can generate the same value.

On the other hand you have fixed costs - you're paying for the medallion whether or not you have a fare, so you're probably better off taking the odd Uber fare when business is slow.

Japan does not have regular uber cars, the uber app just hails regular taxis. Uber did a trial in Fukuoka, Japan but ran into legal issues and had to end it.

I don't know about cabbie's contracts, but Uber offers this as an option (including in Chicago).

https://www.uber.com/chicago-drivers/services/uberCAB/

As a customer, I've only done it because I wanted a cab after a concert and didn't want to wait in line -- I walked two blocks and used Uber to hail a cab instead.

You pay meter fare plus tip and the whole thing is charged through the app.

Chicago is the canonical example of a city with _awful_ taxi service getting hammered by a better product.

I travel all the time, and I have never, ever come across a taxi service in any city that wasn't horrible. That's why it's so frustrating to me when people get on the bandwagon to ban Uber or lyft and say "just take a taxi!"; only someone who hasn't been forced to take a lot of taxis would say something like that.

I used to take taxis, but there's a whole world of difference between not having any idea what a trip will cost or how long you have to wait, and getting an estimate and seeing how many cars are available within a few blocks. I will never use a taxi in cities with Uber.

I traveled to Dublin on business two years ago and I absolutely loved the Hailo app. I could get a cab, see where the driver was (i.e. wait out of the rain), know how long the wait was going to be and approximately how much the fare would be. I associated my credit card with the app and could pay as well.

There was a competitor app (can't recall the name) but most of the drivers said they drove for both. IIRC Hailo took a 10% cut, but all the drivers agreed it was worth it to find fares.

There's Curb, here in the US, but it's basically useless because it doesn't do the two things I want: give me short wait times, and estimate fares. It gives estimates, but every cabbie I've taken gets angry when I tell them what they are. It sucks.

> That's why it's so frustrating to me when people get on the bandwagon to ban Uber or lyft and say "just take a taxi!"

Does anybody really say that? I live in Austin, where we did essentially ban Uber and Lyft, and even then I didn't hear anybody who was for the tougher regulations on ridesharing argue that taxis don't suck.

I'm in Adelaide (South Australia) and the taxis here are generally quite decent. Not without fault, but polite enough, clean, etc. Almost everywhere else though, I avoid them whenever I can.

Hong Kong has excellent taxis. Cheap, ubiquitous, I forget but they may have been cash only. I forget the exact prices but I want to say my average trip was like $4 and it was like only $12 to take a trip across the city.

Uber was thoroughly outcompeted. Slower to get one, four times the price, but I guess the cars were usually Tesla or something similarly fancy.

I was in Hong Kong last week. The cabs are indeed cash only, making it extremely annoying to take one as a business expense.

Ubers were everywhere and most certainly not outcompeted as you suggest, the longest I had to wait was 4 minutes. With a huge expat community not everyone can speak Chinese and being able to input the address ahead of time skipped a lot of mucking around with translation apps when a driver can't speak or read English.

London has an excellent service with black cabs. Completely professional service in every way. The only group I feel sorry for with the ride-sharing taking out their business.

FYI it takes about 3 years of learning 25,000 London streets to get a cab licence. And they really know it. In 4 years of London I once had a cabbie ask me where my zone 2 50m long alley was I lived on. I gave him the cross st and he was straight there then.

If interested an article on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/t-magazine/london-taxi-te...

Agreed that 'the knowledge' means that a taxi will get you where you need to go and probably by a good route, but whether you can actually find a black cab will be very dependent on where you currently are.

Certain places in Zone 1, no problem, but start moving out to zone 2/3 and the number of them about drop off precipitously. Which is where the newer app-based services shine, essentially taking away more from the minicab business (who don't have to complete 'the knowledge') than the cabs.

What's the point of spending 3 years when you have GPS?

These days I feel it' more about the commitment and professionalism that goes with the effort to pass this test. In that most other countries cabbies are a lower skilled, often new immigrant job. This comes with certain problems from taking you on the long route intentionally or not, to theft and rape (note: I understand this is completely the minority bad apples). With black cabs you had non of this concern. It was a great service that bucked the usual taxi driver complaints you see everywhere else in the world.

> FYI it takes about 3 years of learning 25,000 London streets to get a cab licence.

What a ridiculous waste of time in 2017. That certainly drives up costs unnecessarily.

I was in Chicago in October 2016. Strangely, I found the taxis to be better than other cities like SF or Seattle. The rates were very reasonable and in other respects too they were almost comparable to Uber. Maybe they shaped up due to competition.

Funny, I just started doing similar work with the data a few days ago. It's definitely an interesting dataset that's been fun to play with.

From the privacy side of things, and to prove a point, I've been working on de-anonmyizing the data for the past few days by comparing the data against a few other datasets from FOIA and data.cityofchicago.org. It's so far been surprisingly easy to find the plate and driver info. The sort of myopic privacy with these large datasets is pretty shocking. (I don't plan on making the code/results public except to maybe Chicago's own data folk.)

So, given that the stated goals of ride-sharing startups are to automate their workforce (with Uber basically saying "automation or bust"), I think there's a need to build economic analysis of what this means.

In theory, you could correlate data between https://movement.uber.com/cities and this analysis and start building a picture of what it means when a model with less variable costs starts impacting the market.

Is encouragement of cycling and/or use of public transport also a factor in this?

I wonder if greater availability of scheduling information and commuting apps have contributed? Commuting apps make it easier than ever to use public transportation.

Purely from taking the data from this article, I see it next to impossible that ride sharing has anything to do with this when you look at the comparison with New York.

It seems to me that there was an upward spike in 2015 and now it's declines back to pre-2013 levels.

But there are also unknown factors at play here... - what has the economy been like in the last 5 years for the suburbs? - what are the tourism levels over time - the u.s has had a slight economic growth in the last 5 years; what are the car sales in the same areas? Rising?

It seems more like Chicago had a number of downtown events or draw over the course of 1 year, and has now declined. However, the article is basically using the highest spike as the baseline.

One thing I hate about Taxis is the meter. I want a flat price before they get in, but in many countries they kick up a huge fuss or refuse to take you.

In many places they really want to give you a flat price which is about 2x of what would come up with the meter

Then I'll haggle. I just want to know upfront. I always feel like I'm being screwed with the meter.

form my experience, taxis in Chicago are ~1.5x more expensive vs uber.

in nyc its the opposite, ubers are ~1.5x more expensive.

could partially explain the difference in decline.

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