About 75,000 CR (roughly $10 billion) did not come back in circulation. I don't think this is a small amount (more so by Indian standards) so while the estimates for #1 were way off, there was something uncovered. Nobody knew in advance how much black money existed so it was a wild guess before this exercise anyway. So I don't think your #1 criticism is valid.

Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/demonetisa...