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Shortened links are misleading, I might have not clicked your links if you wouldn't be hiding it. (already seen it, hate that specific blog, etc) - this makes your stats wrong cause many people might have clicked the link and closed it right away.

Last time I checked, bit.ly's statistics were counting all kinds of bots and did not allow filtering by useragent - they might have fixed this but in case they didn't then your stats are way wrong.

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I'm aware of the counting limitations, and I believe I'm allowing for them in the rough and ready analysis I'm doing of the numbers I get. I have already seen that certain places get virtually no return, others get a lot. Adjusting my presences accordingly has increased my flow substantially, and while I'm aware that further tuning will require more detailed analysis, and more careful techniques, what I've done so far has been very useful as a first step.

I believe my points stand - bit.ly is useful for this context. I also believe you over-estimate the world's reactions to shortened links. My target is not the technically able, or even the technically aware. They see a link and click, unknowing and uncaring as to whether it's short, long or something in between.

I've done that analysis.

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