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Comment by myblake | Hacker News Reader

While I think now is probably the time for lyft to strike while the iron is hot, I appreciate nytimes' candor in acknowledging neither Lyft nor Uber has demonstrated a "financially viable business". The road ahead is undoubtedly not easy for Lyft.

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> neither Lyft nor Uber has demonstrated a "financially viable business

Self driving cars

> demonstrated

In the magical future where self-driving cars will be able to replace 100% of what a driver does 100% of the time, what barrier to entry will protect Uber from competition? What stops someone from leasing a few dozen vehicles, and opening up their NotUber self-driving taxi service?

The client app, backend tech, and economies of scale.

Small barriers to entry - Cost of purchasing said vehicles Cost of developing a Uber=style app Even past this, the industry will never be highly profitable in the long run because of competition from people who do get past this

Nothing will stop them, and the company to replace Uber won't own the cars. They'll simply make technology that empowers self-driving car owners to earn money with their car while they're sitting at work.

Especially in a world where Google Maps has already intermediated the ridesharing services. NotUber just needs to integrate with gmaps to instantly get ridership without spending billions in incentives to build their own two-sided marketplace.

When that happens, any Uber employees still holding equity are going to take a bath. They will be holding onto shares likely worth less than what they paid in taxes to get them.

A completely different business model where they suddenly own tons of depreciating capital assets. Or are they going to franchise out the car ownership and keep relying on people to not realize they're losing money?

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