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Similar to Google Maps jumpstarting AJAX, I believe RIA will take off if/when a big player like Amazon or Google adopts it.

Adobe is trying to get Flash into the Fortune 500/Enterprise with Flex but I think Ruby on Rails has a better chance (and they are different types of technologies)

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It was interesting a few months ago when Yahoo maps moved from Flex to AJAX. I'm assuming the problem there was the mashup factor. I think using one of these RIA platforms creates (or at least give the impression of) a walled garden, which is not what people want on the web these days.

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