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There is weather, and there is climate. The latter we have very good models for, the former is notoriously difficult to predict.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_we...

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I'm not convinced that we have a good model for climate, either. I think we do not have any clue about large-scale cycles in the climate. Nobody predicted the long drought in California, but the Southwest has had a bunch of cyclical droughts over the past 1000 years. This year was supposed to be a La Nina year for California, but instead something else happened and there has been three years' worth of rain in northern California instead.

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