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Comment by bussie | Hacker News Reader

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

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Thats not true. Scotland would have to apply but Brexit negotiators said the application could even be fast tracked and wouldn't be a big problem for Scotland to rejoin.

>Jacqueline Minor, the European commission’s head of representation in the UK, said Scotland would need to formally apply after leaving the UK, although it could be fast-tracked because it already complies with EU rules and regulations.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent...

Spain are concerned that it might a set a precedent for Catalonia to get independence but if the Scottish independence came about because of the UK leaving the EU Spain will be conformable in allowing Scotland to join.

There is, however, a guarantee that a non-independent Scotland will be part of neither as a result of Brexit.

There's no small irony to the fact that scaremongering around Europe was such a big focus of the Better Together campaign in the run up to the first referendum.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

The classic example is usually presented as Spain, due to fears of setting a precedent that the Basque Country and Catalan could follow to remove themselves from Spain.

Spain has previously come out strongly against an independent Scotland joining the EU, largely because of the issue of Catalonian independence.

That was in the context of the 2014 Indyref, with the main point of contention being whether independent Scotland would remain in the EU or be forced to re-apply for membership (and potentially be blocked by Spanish veto).

The context now is that independent Scotland would have to apply, as it will be a successor state of a non-EU member. I think Spain et al. are fine with this since the precedence it sets will be hard for Basque nationalists to follow.

More recently the Spaniards have stated they won't block Scotland from joining the EU.

Primarily Spain I think? I couldn't find a good source saying they would block the membership outright but there's an article here which includes some details about which states are opposed the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland as part of Brexit (I realise that's slightly different to Scotland joining as an independent nation).

'Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3665...

Spain is less of an argument now as Catalonia have always been a region of Spain whereas Scotland is its own nation which joined the UK through the Act of Union. It's a different legal precedent.

Also, I imagine that Spain will do what they're encouraged to do by thE EC considering the budgetary reliance.

wait what? Catalonia has always been what? Nope.

Hey - if I'm wrong then I'd love to be corrected as I'm currently labouring under the impression that Catalonia is legally a region of Spain and has been part of Spain since around 1469 which was when the concept of what we now know as Spain started.

Not at all wanting a flame-war etc but if I'm wrong then I'd really like to know! :)

Sorry, I now realize my answer could appear to be rude when it wasn't my intention.

The correct year to consider it fully a region of Spain would be 1714, when the Spanish army defeated the catalans and removed most of its state structures/institutions, etc. This article's intro might help: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principality_of_Catalonia

I don't want to bore you with a history lesson that I myself might not know accurately, but I feel the need to say that different namings for the same levels of independence of state structures should be taken into consideration. So saying "Catalonia has always been a region of Spain" is far from the truth or at least it skips a lot of history.

Ah that's really interesting, thanks!

I didn't mean any offence by my statement, I understand that of course Catalan's case for independence is no less valid! I suppose it's really just legal wrangling :)

No offense at all! It's just that history is written by the winners and we have so little international visibility that it hurts :P

Spain has just come out last week and said that they are OK with Scotland joining the EU as long as England has signed of on Scotland leaving the UK first and the independence process being completed. The implication being that it would not set a Catalonian precedent as Spain would be inclined to never sign off on Catalonia leaving in the first place.

> England has signed of on Scotland leaving the UK first

England doesn't 'sign off' for whether Scotland is in union or not as that is Scotland's choice, not England's. England acknowledge this and would never say otherwise.

Well there is really no guarantee but Scotland will pass all tests easily and whole EU will probably help them ;)

Is that still true? AIUI the Stability and Growth Pact [1] requires EU members to limit their deficits to 3% of GDP, and Scotland's deficit in 2016 was approaching 10% after North Sea oil revenues collapsed. Right now it's only fiscal transfers from England via the Barnett formula keeping Scottish spending afloat, and neither spending cuts nor tax rises are traditional political winners.

Which is not to say it's impossible (as some have, [2]); the EU has turned a blind eye when convenient before and I'm sure will do again. But many in the EU might be reluctant to go that route again after the way Greece turned out.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_and_Growth_Pact

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/08/25/scotland...

Doesn't the stability & growth pack only apply to Euro membership? Most EU countries aren't within that 3% anyway.

No, it applies to all EU member states, although many of them (including France and Germany) routinely ignore it with no consequences.

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