I did a ton of analysis, and basically at the end of the day it came out to "will they hit their targets in Q3/Q4 2016 and Q1/Q2 2017?"

There's so much unknown that Tesla continuing to de-risk the business step by step gets them in line with the current valuations, and forward-looking it should go up.

So I figured that at $180 (a very low price for Tesla historically) that if they did what they were predicting (which no one thought they could) that they would crush the current stock price. They have since hit (or come very close to) all of their targets.

Now the entire question short-term is around how the M3 performs. Long-term Tesla is playing a game no one else even sees, so we'd be OK with a couple stumbles.