You say there would have been an insurgency anyway, but daesh was precisely the insurgency that formed from the conditions that made it favorable for such an insurgency to form. These ideologies always exist in a latent form, but they take socioeconomic upheaval to turn into a self sustaining rupture in the political order. The United States both in the short term and the long term has incubated these movements with its ill planned policies and wars.
Like, coordinating coups and dropping bombs over and over again tends to have that effect.