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Comment by acidburnNSA | Hacker News Reader

Fukushima wasn't an unknown unknown. The consequences of that event were fairly preventable.

http://mdcsystems.com/fukushima-dai-ichi-black-swan-event-or...

"... In a discussion of the earthquake and tsunami that produced the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, Taleb writes: “Not seeing a tsunami or an economic event coming is excusable; building something fragile to them is not.” And in the case of the Fukushima disaster, authorities seem to be responding appropriately: not by developing better predictive models, but by building smaller and less vulnerable reactors."

source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Accepting Uncertainty, Embracing Volatility

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-nicholas-t...

It was preventable, but as the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office says, it was not predictable. Aftermath is easy :)

> it was not predictable

How do you explain the fact that this exact scenario was predicted in advance then? E.g.: https://news.usc.edu/86362/fukushima-disaster-was-preventabl...

it is better: Taleb (2009) https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html

TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST WORLD

"4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards."

The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office, including tsunami and earthquake experts had been investigating for years and concluded that it was not predictable. There may be different opinions, but so far no clear evidence shows that it was predictable.

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