Weed will soon clobber beer sales, Wall Street says
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
"How to lie while telling the truth, with figures"
My suggestion: They should change the chart to just have one axis, and have the chart be "% change in usage year over year".
So why again what is scheduled as an illegal "flower" in the first place? If is we do not know the answer then lets look at this question: who benefited all these years from tax money spend on cracking down on growing/trading/having/using this plant?
Allow me to answer the last one: I think weed will be more popular the alcohol, and it will be heavily used as replacement for all kinds for "medicines".
Completely? I'm afraid not. As a compliment to a complete regimen, then of course. I'm a card holder, but there are times where MJ and derivatives don't have the same benefits, long-bone pain being one.
A sidenote: I'm laughing at the irony that one could grow a crop of opium poppies less conspicuously than a crop of MJ.
No not completely. I do not expect weed to replace all pharmaceuticals.
I was kind of surprised by that when i heard it but apparently the process of productification of is far enough in places like Denmark that medical marijuana pretty much exclusively refers to extracts with limited psychoactive effects.
With weed legal, the price will go down and I'm not sure if those people buying now are going buy so much more that their expenditure will rise - my guess is a lot of people may buy more but spend less.
Which leaves more money for ... beer.
Finally and perhaps most important their is a huge logistical cost to being in the THC industry. Regulations at the local and state levels can take a healthy business and make it shut its doors in less then a week. Payment portals get frozen. Limits to growers, shippers, etc. keep pricing very high. I've yet to meet an un-affluent heavy user who doesn't still buy from a dealer because of pricing.
P.S. don't forget the religious and cultural push-back against weed. We accept beer advertising as normal, that won't happen with weed in most places. No superbowl commercials for Gorilla Glue.
"Research firm Cowen & Company analyzed the state of the beer industry in Colorado, Oregon and Washington—states where both recreational weed is legal and craft beer has become popular".
And:
"MilllerCoors have seen the largest drops. Sales volume of premium brews like Coors Light and Bud Light dipped by 4.4%, while economy brews—the regular forms of mainstream beers like Budweiser or Coors—dipped by 2.4%."
Sales of craft beers go up, sales of draft beers go down. I'm not putting all of that on weed.
I really don't like how all the sources of articles on the impact and results of weed legalization link to... other weed legalization articles.
P.S. A large amount of this "information" is just normal if well disguised click-bait. Please, please, please, link me to hard data if you want to change my mind. I will read every sentence of it!
P.S.S. Also craft beer has EXPLODED in places like Portland and it seems like a natural outcome that, because craft beer is much more expensive, that people buy less of it and enjoy it as more of a social delicacy then a weekend event.
Sorry but I am highly skeptical of economic projections by biased parties. Especially when politics are involved, which in the case of weed, it is.
I dunno, maybe have a look at, you know, the actual report (as opposed to the glossy summarization attempted CNBC article)? Sounds like you're pretty well settled on the idea that their findings have got to be FUD, no matter what the data actually say, though (being as you've just admitted that you've haven't actually looked at their data). So there's probably no need for you to bother.
An Investment bank took a public position in something and now we get a bunch of articles and inferences fed to the general public as if they are absolute certainties. Investment banks are always right and have no self interests ever... right?
[1]: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2536820&headline=T...
Still, I wouldn't say "bogus, FUD, politically motivated, etc" in such a situation.
I would just say "So it looks like we don't know yet. Let's have a look at the data."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdominal_obesity#cite_note-97
The combination of any sort of neurological impairment and the lifting of heavy weights over your head and throat sounds like a bad accident just waiting to happen.
I'm a fairly heavy user, have been for a number of years. I use it primarily to treat depression/anxiety/insomnia, but I also experience chronic pain due to years of abusing my body (rugby, mountain biking, snowboarding, etc.). Nothing crazy, but something is always hurting.
I wouldn't compare its effects to traditional painkillers by any means. I would say it makes me less aware of the pain, and "dulls" it. For example I can tell my knee isn't happy, but it doesn't "hurt". I have however tried some topical cream from a dispensary containing CBD (most strains you'll be smoking have been bred for higher THC and lower CBD), and it's incredibly effective. I experienced hours of absolute painlessness (which is unheard of for me).
As for workouts, I find it helps tremendously with focus and endurance. It's a lot easier to keep pushing on when you would normally give up.
I think it's a very valuable tool, and has relatively few downsides to it (I won't claim it's 100% safe/healthy). Moderation is important as always when using substances.
MS patients have a lot of pain and problems with muscles. When given medical MJ, they don't clinically get better and still have some pain signals from their body. What does change is that they feel better - they simply don't mind the pain/muscle tightness as much and they report better functionality.
Personally, I've smoked for PMS pain. It doesn't get rid of the pain completely, but takes the edge off. I can take half the amount of pain medicine (in this case, mixing tylenol (paracet) and ibuprofen per doctors orders).
When you order PJ or PH, you get a "maybe in 30-45 minutes" email, but D gets you the "out for delivery" notification.
The only thing better is Postmates/UberEats style tracking of delivery drivers so you can track progress in real time.
And I know it's just an anecdote, but I'm a successful scientist with a PhD who vaporizes daily. I prefer it to an alcohol buzz. No hangover, no blackouts, no stupidity.
I will be sure to shed a tiny tear for the macrobrew industry, those poor, poor shareholders.
I'm not arguing that it's better than alcohol or xyz but it does have side effects.
People clearly feel that they enjoy the high more than the potential side effects, long term or otherwise.
It's the same reason humans consume a great range of drugs.
Do you drink alcohol? If so, you're already consuming a harder drug than marijuana. [1]
1. The message that it's less harmful than some regularly consumed things (eg, alcohol, cocaine, heroin) got smeared in to not being harmful.
2. A lot of those studies have serious faults -- either in not controlling the population that they're studying and confounding effects (eg, there might be a correlation between mental disorders and drugs because people prone to disorders are prone to seeking out drugs, not because drugs cause disorders; people who smoke both marijuana and cigarettes in lung cancer studies without adjusting for whether people also smoke tobacco) or they test at levels of consumption which most people don't partake in (ie, alcohol is really bad if you're a heavy alcoholic, but most people don't have to worry about that).
I don't think that marijuana smoking is harmless, but I think the degree of harm is obscured because of a lack of study, particularly long-term studies. (And, well, let's be honest: some of the research put out about marijuana came out of what are effectively government propaganda labs -- there was very little chance that they wouldn't find it was 'dangerous', in order to justify the scheduling.)
Having said that, alcohol misuse causes pretty severe psychosis too.
Here's a nice article: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/000486741559801...
There are more recent articles describing the mechanism that causes people with psychosis to smoke much more tobacco than the general population.
Many drink alcohol because they enjoy the taste of what they're consuming, plus any other positive associated feelings of consuming any beverage. Drinking alcohol is embedded deeply into human social behavior and in many cultures goes hand in hand with eating and other social activities. In fact, in many contexts, the fact that alcohol induces drunkenness is more of a liability than a benefit for many people.
Calories in one joint: 0
On the other hand, I truly need to eat if I'm drinking lest I get an upset stomach.
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/8/929/155851/Obesit...
Calories in 1oz bag of FRITOS®: 160
Calories in 2 slices of pizza: 320
Calories in 20oz Mountain Dew: 290
Calories in a large dill pickle: 0
Anyone smoking a joint a night... I suppose that makes them a stoner?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/katieherzog/how-i-smoked-my-way-sob...
See my sib comment. In short: it's a misinterpretation/decontextualization of the research.
The idea that cannabis can cause liver damage seems to have started from a study[1] on the effects of chronic marijuana use in patients with Hepatits C, a disease which primarily affects the liver. There was a correlation between heavier cannabis use and worse liver fibrosis, but I think it's pretty misleading to say "cannabis can damage the liver" - so can acetaminophen, vitamins, and a million other chemicals, if taken in vast excess or with an already compromised liver.
[1]http://www.cghjournal.org/article/S1542-3565(07)01050-6/abst...
I'm not sure how you can say that with any degree of confidence though. The study you reference refers to cannabis use in people infected with hepatitis C. Have you seen any results comparing the effects of alcohol on the liver in a similar cohort of patients?
The reason I believe it is admittedly anecdotal, but I still find it compelling: I've simply never heard of someone experiencing liver failure from chronic heavy cannabis use alone, whereas chronic heavy alcohol use alone is known to practically guarantee liver failure.
the cost will drop quickly as a result, and I wonder what that will do to startups in the space. wholesale costs are plummeting but retail seems price-fixed, which is unsustainable when you have enough competition. once retail starts to plummet too -- say we reach a point where 3.5g costs the same as what currently buys 1g -- the value proposition of things like leaf (the IoT grow box) dies, and eaze, meadow, and all the other uber-for-weed startups become too cost inefficient... it seems like a lot of startups in the general weed space are (literally) banking on the fact that prices haven't dropped yet, but I don't think that will last at all.
They'll scale massively. Someone has to supply all the states that are one day going to legalize weed - and I believe those who have already much experience in all aspects, from breeding over cultivating to harvest as well as legal and financial challenges, will also be those who will be the fastest to rush into any new open market. Also, they have (literally) wads over wads of cash readily available.
That's from a cultivators perspective.
If I shoot for high yield (10 oz), 400w @ 0.17 per kWh * (18 hrs * (7 days * 4 weeks)) + (12 hrs * (7 days * 8 weeks)) = 400w @ $0.17 per kWh * (504 hrs + 672 hrs = 1176 hrs) = 471 kWh * 0.12 = $80.02. That's with Northern Lights which would probably go for $1500 per pound, or ~$900 per plant per season. Electricity (well just light, which should be >85% of your electrical costs) would only account for 8% of the production costs.
Infrastructure costs would be amortized and recovered within the first year of full scale operation but just for arguments sake you can source a secure grow inside a $5000 insulated 40' shipping container. Conduit, outlets, panels, grounding, etc. would be $3000 if hired out through Angieslist but if you DIY it, $1000 is feasible. Including a sufficient ~4hr battery UPS. HVAC can then similarly take $1000-$4000 depending on needs and necessities. Totalling out to maybe $15,000?
A 40' container would comfortably do 3 seasons of 40 plants in 1 year, effectively taxing each plant $125 for the first year. The yield would be about 75 lbs @ $1500/lbs = $112,500 in year one. As such, each secure building would only cut 13% of your first years profits... or put another way, 14% of your first years plants' expense.
Granted, these are just Internet numbers. I can speak more candidly and openly offline, but I reiterate -- all of your expenses should be < 10% for an indoor grow op.
The zone I get into when I code high is amazing. It feels like I'm Da Vinci re-incarnate, deeply thinking about my work. I seem to be able to piece things from long term memory better (although I will admit that short-term memory and situational awareness is severely hampered). It also takes away the clarity of sobriety but the level of concentration and depth of thought it grants your imagination is well worth it, and of course, is only temporary. It does amplify even the smallest instinct of hunger so I tend to do it after I eat, not before.
I also prefer to use it post-workout as it relaxes my muscles much better than anything else outside of a warm jacuzzi. I'm guessing the inflammatory response from the body also helps with recovery soon after a high-intensity workout. I haven't looked at that aspect too deeply yet, I just know what my body tells me. The high itself is also amplified post-workout so you actually need to consume less to get the same effect as at rest.
These are my experiences, not science, but I'm guessing many others might share similar experiences. Note that I do not smoke marijuana, only vaporize it. Smoking in general is just bad internally and externally so I believe vaporizing or ingestion are the best methods.
However, there will likely be a big impact on beer sales for Wall street. They see the beer sales of big publicly traded companies, brands like Budweiser, etc. But in the world of cannabis consumption people are more likely to be consuming beer from small local breweries, which fly under Wall Street's radar because they are more like trendy restaurants than like McDonalds.
I do expect legal weed to change things, but I don't expect beer sales to go down. However the big breweries will lose market share because consumption patterns will change. If your business model requires vast numbers of people to buy your product, then a future in which people are more diverse, is not a good one for you.
And if you look at how many people are explicitly rejecting mass conformity such as political correctness, you can see problems for Wall Street while at the same time business is booming and local scale businesses thrive.
Police unions, private prison corporations and politicians all have strong incentive to oppose legalization.
Headlines today here were about a 19 year old rural young person who was in the legal register (yes, you have to register to grow or purchase marijuana, not something the U.S. will like), but police still locked him up saying he was over the legal limit, by weighing untreated marijuana and saying each branch was a different plant (maximum allowed by law is 6).
Spanish language link:
http://www.montevideo.com.uy/contenido/Procesaron-con-prisio...
Google translate: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=y&prev...
(Also, for the non-Americans, "1/4" is a quarter oz, approx. 7 grams)
(edit) Also, while buying in bulk is usually cheaper, people also enjoy pre-rolled joints, edibles or concentrates which are more expensive.
This is not true, concentrates like THC oil (the marijuana equivalent of e-cigarettes, basically) are by far the least expensive way to use marijuana. In Oregon, one ounce of THC oil costs $60, and might last a moderate user three months; the same money spent on "flowers" (regular pot) would get you about 5 grams and probably last the same user a couple of weeks.
For people who don't smoke this much weed it's hard to comprehend but at a certain point you just don't get that high. You're mostly maintaining a buzz throughout the day or evening.
It's an entirely different experience when you smoke that much; one, I'd personally say is much more enjoyable.
Has there been any research into the effect of tolerance?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/04/the-gover...
It would be grossly unusual for a single user. Grossly, extravagantly, extremely unusual.
I'd wager that less than 0.1% of all cannabis users approach 4g/day. They may binge up to 4g on their heaviest day of all time, but average far lower.
I would argue it's very unusual if only because the set of all people who can access 4oz/weed per month, and can afford the $1000-$2000/mo ($24,000/yr!) hobby is very small. Add up all of the trust fund kids with enough money, time and access and you have a tiny, tiny number of people.
An average heavy user can only afford that much weed if they're dealing and skimming, and supply and demand insists that not everyone can be a supplier. Even so, I'd wager the average heavy user chooses to use far, far, far less than 1oz every other week.
That brings me to the next point: to smoke 1 oz / weed every 2 weeks, you probably smoke at least once every waking hour.
So these HN rich kids who do it would almost assuredly require being high to do any work at all.
Personally, I don't want my engineers high as a kite 24/7 while working for me. Personal time is personal time, but on the clock non-stop smoking? But I guess people get away with it.
They do have a distinctive smell, though, especially once they are budding. If you aren't already growing other herbs and vegetables, then that might be undesirable.
If you vape, even if you are a really heavy smoker you won't go over a half a month
Jeez. Have some integrity.
Sure, some people (myself included) prefer a bit of weed or a brownie over a few beers, but that's a personal preference thing.
hell, my grandmother smokes marijuana and still has a beer or two before bed.
/anecdotal evidence
Then there are all those meth epidemics and cocaine users and prescription opiates making the USA 'fun'. For kids that have gone straight to heroin from prescription drugs, what is the attraction of weed? It would be like an alcoholic going for a lemonade shandy rather than another bottle of wine/spirits/cider/super-strength beer.
I thought weed was going the way of interesting trippy drugs - LSD, mushrooms - that exist but people don't go crazy for. Nowadays the disease of addiction has better outlets in U.S.A. and the social aspect of smoking is gone, so who smokes pot in the USA these days apart from those with medical reasons to do so?
Also anecdata: people don't smoke cigarettes as much, but they sure do vape. I live in a neighborhood where you can pretty brazenly walk down the street puffing on a Pax.
I'm really interested as to how you got your perspective, as I find all of your premises bizarre.
Allegedly there was an election recently and some people voted for the crazy guy with small hands because he promised to build a wall to keep the drugs out. I don't think it was a bit of weed that concerned people, it was the epidemic in the truly destructive opiate/cocaine/crystal meth drugs that motivated them to vote.
From what I hear all of this sad addiction epidemic goes on in isolated regions, rural America with 30 million Americans - mostly vulnerable people - getting hooked on the crazy drugs due to being prescribed opiates and then having to score on the street because it is cheaper. There is nothing recreational about this type of sad drug use, it is death spiral addiction where nobody does well as a recovering addict.
These drugs get TV advertised, 'ask your doctor' is a unique U.S.A. thing, as is watching hours of TV laced with advertising. The rest of the world is not racing along with consumerism at the same level being bombarded with adverts for dangerous medications. But articles make it onto the web describing the horrors of the situation:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/3/23/14987892/op...
Sounds to me like the U.S.A. has turned into a land of zombies with people in California still safe, but, good luck if you live in New Mexico or Ohio, you are not going to be far from one of these otherwise dull and unremarkable Americans turned criminal crazy by prescription drugs.
So is that a tenth of the population doing shameful drugs that are totally not 'recreational' or social? These people are not spending their money on weed as they have the percocet or whatever to score or their crystal meth to 'shake and bake'.
I don't see how a population engaged in such activities can also support a 'healthy' dope smoking scene particularly when normal smoking of tobacco has been made a taboo thing to do.
1. Smoking tobacco is seen as a mild taboo, but many people still do it. As long as the smoking is done outside and away from a main entrance, it's unlikely anyone will comment.
2. A large amount of people are addicted to prescription opiates, but if you go to New Mexico or Ohio, it's not going to look like a scene out of The Walking Dead. The total amount of addicted people is estimated to be 2 million [1]. Out of 300 million people, it means that this tragedy is hidden unless you personally know an affected person. By the way, many in California are affected by this issue.
3. Tobacco isn't considered a "gateway" to cannabis use by experts or credible laypeople. Tobacco users and Cannabis users have little relation or overlap.
4. Cannabis is usually introduced in the same manner as alcohol (at parties or small gatherings of friends), though alcohol is far more socially acceptable. Cannabis has never been primarily considered a "trippy" drug in the U.S. ---though there are many people who do use it that way--- it's more of a recreational substance. Cannabis use has declined among the under 18-year-olds over the past decade, but has increased among adults.
4. There are many methamphetamine and heroin addicts in absolute numbers, but again, they do not dominate any metropolitan area. Sure, it is easy to find addicts among homeless populations, but it isn't like Crash, Breaking Bad, or The Wire in terms of pervasiveness and intensity.