They Could Buy, but Why? Meet the High-Renters
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
It's also a sign of folly for some. Many people hate-read the Sunday Real Estate section. There are often one-bedrooms listed for $700k – $1 million, with $1K+ per month maintenance fees. Add on to that $200 – 1K per month in taxes, and suddenly you will have to wait a VERY long time to make anything like the return you'd get from investing in a Vanguard Total Market Fund and renting for $3K per month.
Everyone in the real estate industry loves purchases because of the fees associated with purchase. But buying is often not a good idea (though it depends on when). If we get another real estate crash and prices drop by 10 – 20%, buying may start to make sense again. In 2011 buying was a great idea.
This same basic dynamic plays out in many cities. The NYT has a decent rent-vs-buy calculator: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal... that can help answer some questions. Notice the investment return expected, which is a vital part of these calculations.
If done properly (buy, then rent out when you move, managed by prop management company), you'll come out far ahead versus just renting. You should of corse still be investing in equities for diversification.
You need a roof on your head. You might as well pay the rent 10-30 years and own the place, rather than have nothing.
You are also now exposed to the vagaries of rental pricing and demand.
It seems the kind of property management it takes to sink the rent-vs-buy gap is beyond abysmal and made us really confident that we could afford to purchase despite not being sure if we're staying in the place long-term.
Capital is cheaper than ever and prices are insane right now. If your goal is to make money, this is pretty clearly not a time to buy in many markets.
Renting always has very significant downsides. You have no control, sacrifice flexibility, and are always exposed to any market price changes in the market at lease renewal.
The rent vs buy calculators focus too much on asset value vs. cash flow.
I think you make a lot of assumptions, like the one above, which don't fit my admittedly anecdotal experience. I live in one of the hot markets, I bot a place at the peak of the market before the last crash, and found myself nearly $200k in the hole on paper. That was roughly 10 years ago, and here's what happened.
I lived in it for 10 years, and I just sold it for more than I paid for it. Obviously this in isolation wasn't a good investment, but I did nearly the worst thing, bought at a peak before a crash, and still came out net positive 10 years later.
Second, you said "and renting for $3K per month" which is a mistake because it's assuming rent will not go up in any significant way. Where I live, rent goes up a lot. That place I bought 10 years ago, a couple years back we thought about selling and renting (to get into a different school district) and we realized that our mortgage was lower than what we would have to pay in rent to get a similar place in the same area.
Again, these are just anecdotes, but my experience doesn't fit with the assumptions you are making above.
The US is easily that inflated relative to historic norms, so what we think of as a huge correction could basally be a minor blip vs what's next. Or even just a 20+ year stagnation in housing prices. Worse real estate transaction fees are are massive.
PS: Same as it ever was. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economic-crash-repeated-e...
Hurts
Also recall that selling a place for more than you paid for it doesn't mean you've made money. As I'm sure you know, owning property also involves substantial ongoing costs (beyond the purchase price) that never get recouped: maintenance, property fees, incidental construction / renovation, insurance, mortgage taxes, real estate fees, and so on. Never mind the lost investment potential from the down payment, which is now a sunk cost vs. something that could have earned interest in the markets.
I'm not trying to challenge your anecdote; just to recognize that even with stories like yours the truth is complicated and hard to assess.
For my part, my experience has taught me to be especially wary of "hot markets" - the hype that comes with them IMO artificially inflates real estate prices to a point where the underlying value can easily get lost. I happen to be very lucky in having a rent situation that easily beats purchasing, even over multiple years. But I acknowledge rental arrangements can also get hyped, so a bad rental situation can also cost you.
I'm not trying to make any assumptions on your anecdote, but only the very hottest markets have been able to pull off that kind of recovery.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1.00&year1=201...
This is oversimplified for illustrative purposes. You have to pay interest, taxes, get a place to live... but the example shows why you don't need the sales price to go up by inflation to break even or make a profit even in 2007 dollars.
One mistake (IMO) many people make about housing is not adequately thinking through the second possibility.
1.2M - 6% realtor fees is 1.128M. Thats 72K just for realtor fees right off the bat.
not including including costs like city transfer tax, capital gains for short term sales, and countless other seller fees that vary by market temperature.
All this comes off your 200k "profits", which is still great, but homeowners typically take years just to stop being underwater when buying a home.
All I was trying to point out is that the return isn't just the sales price having to beat inflation.
You are completely right that I forgot to mention buying and selling costs (which, as you note, are very high in real estate).
If you put $200k in an investment (say, the stock market, or bonds, or whatever) and it goes down by 10% then you've lost $20k. But if you're leveraged 5x (as in your example: putting in $200k on a $1M investment), then that's a multiplier in the positive and negative direction. A fall in housing prices in your city, area, neighborhood, of 10% will now wipe out 50% of what you put in.
Leverage is considered very risky. Housing is considered fairly safe to begin with, so when you use leverage on it it only becomes moderately risky.
But basically there's no such thing as a free lunch. The reason your $200k can double if housing prices move just a little bit up, is because it can also be wiped out if they move just a little bit down.
1) The difference between the mortgage payment and equivalent rent for an equivalent place
2) Tax write offs (mortgage interest deductions)
3) Principal pay down
4) Property Maintenance costs
5) Property purchase fees (transfer tax, loan origination fees, etc)
And then for the stock holder you missed...
6) Taxes paid on cashing out stocks
wow! How are these itemized? Or is it just referred to as a single line-item "$1,000.00 Maintenance fee" ?
I pay ~$900/month in fees for my 1 bedroom (charged based on the 113 shares i own) - and then I pay another 20-30 for electricity, which is billed on the same ticket. Then, come tax time, I get to deduct around ~35% of those maintenance fees as real estate tax.
it varies from building to building and borough to borough.
These consist largely of 19th century buildings. And even the "modern" apartment buildings are 1920s, 1930s, etc. These are also precisely the neighborhoods that zone-limit modern construction to avoid compromising their character.
So you have a bunch of old buildings that need serious maintenance, sometimes by firms with specialized and otherwise outdated skill sets (e.g. stoop rebuilding and iron fence work).
Many of these neighborhoods are also in historic districts, meaning they're landmark-protected to preserve traditional architectural character.
Brooklyn Heights is a prime example. Essentially the whole neighborhood is one big historic district. The housing stock is ancient. And it's a highly desirable neighborhood. Maintenance fees can easily waver between $1,000 and $2,000. There are very few modern condos (which basically avoid these problems). So their very scarcity inflates their purchase prices. All in all you get a very difficult place to live in and own property.
The real problem with buying an apartment (as I see it) is that you don't really have most of the benefits of "ownership" aside from cost and location stability, and even that is somewhat in flux due to association/management fees, and if you have a co-op., mortgage rates. But, it's worthwhile for some, and IIRC, the return was better than the S&P 500 from 2000 through about 2013.
I can't for the life of me figure out any way to be truly comfortable with a land lease.
NYC real estate is a really weird world.
I don't know how long we will continue this lifestyle, but AirBNB makes it easy. For multi-month rentals, payments go through monthly.
After dealing with so many headaches in personal and commercial rentals in SF, I'm welcoming this lifestyle. I'm tired of setting up internet, enrolling in utility payments, disputing issues with landlords, and moving crap between apartments. The last year has been a nightmare for this stuff, and having to deal with long leases has been a root problem preventing me from walking out of bad personal and business rentals. (Fun fact - even canceling a month-to-month Comcast business internet account requires 2 months notice.)
When we shut down [1] my last company, my girlfriend said "it's now or never." I had realized that I dreaded going to an office every day, so I'm working on making my new company 100% remote.
[1] https://blog.staffjoy.com/staffjoy-is-shutting-down-39f7b5d6...
We're using Earthclass Mail for a mailing address. Works super well. They even cash checks for us.
It is different for Americans, though, they are on the hook for income tax regardless of where in the world they reside.
It works because I am flexible about renting studio apartments or rooms in Airbnb-dorm-like houses, and I don't have other responsibilities or attachments. Compared to the up-front costs, commitments, and assorted bills connected with an annual lease, I prefer it.
We're planning on staying in places for 3 months at a time. It gives us the flexibility to join a gym, take time to relax, and get a routine.
I spent ~2 years as a completely untethered nomad, and love having my feet planted somewhere I love while I still travel+work 3+ weeks at a time regularly so so so much more.
Besides the means (financial) and freedom (remote-friendly employment/relationships) to do this, there are a lot of cultural/social aspects that influence the viability of the long-term nomadism.
1) White privilege: Are you white? Being a nomad is WAY nicer! People are nice and welcoming to you almost everywhere, and go out of their way to involve you in their local stuff, making life more interesting and fun. Also, everyone wants to bang you, if you're into that. Otherwise, get ready to lead a lonely life, struggling to build deeper connections, and having a hard time experiencing the "serendipity of traveling".
2) Your support network's relationship with this lifestyle: This is a romanticized lifestyle for the western world, whereas it's treated as a vagabond-like, evasion of responsibility in Asian culture. This can be draining if your family is mostly disparaging of your lifestyle choice (or others are of your parents for bringing you up wrong etc).
3) You always have a home when you want it: There is a place where you feel safe, you belong, you love and can easily go back to and stay whenever you want for however long you want to recharge in between. If you end up nomading to someplace that doesn't work for you, you can bail on short notice and re-plan. If something happens or if you need to just take a break from the nomadism, you know where to go. If you don't have this (you don't care for your hometown, or was in my case, you have/had legal visa complications preventing you from "calling where you wanted to stay home"), being a nomad can be stressful and uncertain.
As a brown entrepreneur raised in Asia who wanted to settle in the Bay, and chose the nomad life while waiting for my visa to come through, I learned the above the hard way.
If you and your SO are a developers, then I would highly recommend a work-cation in Prague. I spent a few weeks at a really cool co-working space, PaperHub, which was part of the Institute of Cryptanarchy (lol). They take BTC for everything, the transit system is a dream, and there are tiny little specialist grocery stores everywhere. If I was ever going to return to the same place twice, it would be Prague.
Beware of burnout, though - there is no rest in this lifestyle. The home office wants me online during their business day, and constantly learning new cultures is a huge cognitive load. After two years of this, I needed to settle down for a while; right now I am resting between jobs, thanks to a very supportive mother. Oh, make sure to take good care of your parents, they may end up being the only solid, reliable people in your life.
I honestly don’t get the attraction of co-working spaces for most digital nomads. The costs often outweigh simply working from a cafe or the balcony of your AirBnB – 3G internet is cheap in most of the world now. In my hometown, co-working spaces attract locals who set up small teams with other local freelancers and could benefit from in-person collaboration. But for a solitary digital nomad all of whose contacts are remote, what's the point?
There are some extra perks to a good co-working space, though. It is library-quiet, and you are surrounded by people who are living and working a similar plan. I was actually able to informally recruit a guy who often worked near me, when we needed to bang out a bunch of UI components and their services, for a design that the client and I had already detailed fairly well.
Because there are two of us, we're being conscious of not spending every waking moment together. A coworking space helps with that.
We're planning on staying places for 3 months at a time. Here in CDMX, that's let us get a coworking space, gym membership, and a semblance of a routine.
We're planning on spending extended time in our hometowns, too (though maybe not 3 months).
It is very enjoyable, but at the end of each stretch I was ready to go home and reconnect with my family and friends.
Personally I found it difficult to feel connected in a place when I don't speak the language, and move every month or so.
Your personal needs may vary. Either way it should be a great time, at least for a while.
Liabilites: $800k loan
Assets: $1M property $0 cash
Net worth: $200k
Assuming everything keeps its value equal and buying and selling have no cost (which at these scales and required accuracy is probably reasonable for the comment), any amount of buying and selling and borrowing should keep your net worth identical.
The only reason real estate can work for me is because I'm able to put down 30% of the purchase price in cash for the apartments and borrow the rest at crazy low rates [2.99% & 2.59% for the more recently purchased unit]. If we assume a reasonable return on the apartment (4% annually) and a healthy yearly stock market return (8%), if you consider the fact that I couldn't borrow money to play with stock, the 'bonus' I get on appreciating portion of the property that is actually borrowed money makes them experience very similar performance when modelled[1] over a 10 year period.
At the end of the day, as with all financial advice, what you should do dramatically depends on your current personal situation, goals and age.
[1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1esgwYfYhDo0JaFP0qGhr...
The reality is that most people I know would rather rent – it's easier and in many cases even cheaper here. But the problem is that here is Stockholm, and Stockholm has a highly dysfunctional rental market where it's practically impossible for anyone to just come on to the market and find a place to rent within a week or two. You're more or less forced into buying a place if you're going to stick around. People that stick around for a couple of weeks, maybe a month, are going to be fine – plenty of hotels and such make it easy to stay. But if you're staying for more than a month, but probably less than say three years – you're more or less SOL. There's a sort of secondary (and even tertiary, believe it or not) rental market, but you'll probably be moving around every few months whether you like it or not.
I can't help but think the chips are stacked against those who just need a place to live for a while, here in Stockholm at least.
One important benefit of buying: the $500K capital gains tax exemption for married couples on sales of their primary home after living for two+ years.
http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/the-250000500000-home...
Interesting comment. Never in my life or travels have I met anoybody who attached stigma to renting a place.
I think a 1000k 1 bed condo is comparable to a 200k car in that it isn't just a place to stay or a way to get from A to B.