Half the time I pick a good solution and half the time I've rushed in and picked the wrong one.
If I have picked the wrong one, I know within 30 mins that it is a flawed approach, but have usually explored the problem sufficiently to pick a good solution. The interview unfortunately ends after 30 mins.
I should also add that I'm not much better at this after 13 years of professional development than I was when I left uni, when it comes to manipulating linked lists and arrays. My systems design is a lot better though.