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Comment by ared38 | Hacker News Reader

> I don't pretend that the world is perfectly modeled by classical macroeconomic laws

Understatement of the century. Would you tell someone working at CERN "I don't pretend Newton's laws are perfect, but..."?

> the burden of proof is on the pro-minimum wage camp to disprove the laws of supply and demand in this situation

Which previous studies of the minimum wage have consistently done (well, more accurately shown that the deadweight loss is more than offset by increased wages). That's the whole reason this article is interesting.

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Every minimum wage increase is different!

Even the staunchest free market economist wouldn't claim that a hypothetical minimum wage increase from $.10/hr to $.50/hr in Seattle would increase unemployment. And even the staunchest socialist economist would not claim that a minimum wage increase from $8/hr to $800/hr wouldn't increase unemployment.

Similarly, how can you compare an increase from $5-6 in New jersey in 2005 to one from $11 to $13 in Seattle in 2017? You can't extrapolate this stuff.

The question is not "Are minimum wage increases good in general?" the question is "Given the potential tradeoffs, is this specific minimum wage increase good?"

> Every minimum wage increase is different!

Sure, but

> You can't extrapolate this stuff.

Why not? I'm not saying it's like physics where we can make nearly exact models, but can't we at least make educated predictions based on previous examples, taking into account the different circumstances?

After all, in your hypothetical you already implicity modeled that a minimum wage a certain percentage of a "reasonable" wage won't hurt employment, while one much higher will.

> The question is not "Are minimum wage increases good in general?" the question is "Given the potential tradeoffs, is this specific minimum wage increase good?"

This only underscores the importance of extrapolation -- lawmakers need to be able to predict these tradeoffs to make good decisions (if extrapolation is possible).

Fair point, I agree that extrapolation could be important here. If the effects of the $13 minimum wage are considered positive in Seattle, that would be good for the Portland government to know.

I guess my issue with your first comment is that it seemed like it was trying to consider minimum wage increases as generally good or bad, which I disagree with. I think it's much more nuanced than that, and it sounds like you agree.

The question I now read your first comment as asking is, "Why have studies shown this minimum wage increase as more harmful than other minimum wage increases? Of course, the answer is just that the elasticity of demand for low-wage labor in this case appear greater than in other cases.

The question is: what does the labor elasticity graph look like? And that's what these studies are really trying to figure out.

> Which previous studies of the minimum wage have consistently done (well, more accurately shown that the deadweight loss is more than offset by increased wages).

No, studies have been mixed and controversial, at best. This is just another study that shows how empirically ambiguous it is (by supporting the anti-minimum wage position), so again, I challenge the left to hold their evidence to a higher standard since it goes against common sense economics.

Regardless, the minimum wage and most other forms of welfare put forward by mostly the Democratic Party are economically foolish and distort incentives (TANF, unemployment benefits, minimum wage, mandatory social security, etc.) A very basic income is much cleaner and simpler -- I have yet to hear an argument for why our current welfare complex is superior.

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