Hacker News Reader

Comment by forapurpose | Hacker News Reader

I read someplace that political power is constant. If you withdraw, then the power doesn't go away - it remains for others to seize. Perhaps it's the law of conservation of political power.

For example, it happened in Iraq when the U.S. eliminated the people holding power, Hussein and the Baathists, and didn't have realistic plans for anyone to seize it. Iran, Shiite religious authorities, and Sunni insurgents all jumped for it. The mess still hasn't been resolved.

It's happening on a much larger, more significant scale globally as the U.S. withdraws. Others aren't sitting still; they are coming in and seizing the power for themselves. It is very hard won and the most valuable thing in the world; who would walk away from it?

View on HN

The US is not withdrawing. The US did have a plan for Iraq and executed it. The plan was to take out the regime and establish a military presence and prevent a strong regime from taking the old one's place. A mess accomplishes that. The US is still surrounding Iran with operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US still operates (indirectly?) in Syria against Russia. When Gaddafi tried to circumvent the petrodollar his country was wiped out. The sanctions against North Korea continue.

The big problem for me is that all of these things have been predicted well in advance and explained in detail by the 'crazy conspiracy theorists'. One of the predictions is that North Korea is a strong candidate for initiating World War III.

The main thing I worry about now is if China really considers North Korea an ally when it comes down to it, if there is some missile launch at Japan, a US retaliation, and then China gets involved. It seems absolutely crazy but so are all of the other wars. News about China circumventing the US dollar is much more frightening for me than hearing about all of the latest North Korea threats. Because this gives China a reason to back North Korea if the US effectively blocks China's oil benchmark plans.

I'm just curious: could you give me an example where a 'crazy conspiracy theorists' explain and predict the war against Afghanistan, Iraq etc..? I mean articles which predate the situations.

I believe it was Cheney and possibly Rumsfeld whose organization, in the late 1990s, published a paper advocating invasion of Iraq.

I agree with many of those points, but they describe the U.S.'s actions before Trump took office. Since then the U.S.'s behavior has been exceptionally isolationist; for example, the U.S. withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, is trying to withdraw or renegotiate multiple trade agreements, wavered on NATO commitments, has openly stated they embracing 'America First' policy, etc. etc. etc.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com