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Comment by pquerna | Hacker News Reader

Huh? What is your bar for "done growing". Because the rest of the normal publicly traded market doesn't grow revenue at 50+ percent a year. The average for the S&P 500 is something more like 3-4 percent revenue growth per year.

From data in the MongoDB S-1:

  2016 yoy revenue growth: 58%
  2017 yoy revenue growth: 55%

MongoDB is part of the same thesis as something like Twilio -- they IPO'ed over a year ago with the same belief around differentiating via developer-centric customer acquisition. Twilio is still putting up ~70% yoy growth.

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Twilio's growth is exciting but it isn't reflected in their stock price. Every few weeks, I find myself going back to look at their share prices.

Each time, I'm tempted to pull the trigger and invest a moderate five digit sum. I just can't go through with it. I usually buy and hold, long-term investing, and Twilio is one that I've been monitoring since their IPO.

I'd probably pull the trigger if I saw just a bit more fluctuation. It hasn't necessarily got to be just growth, but some fluctuation just to indicate that they are doing something of note.

For 70% yoy growth, it doesn't seem to be really impacting the company's valuation. I'd just checked it earlier this week, and just checked again now, and it's pretty much been the same price for a while now.

Twilio is trading at 10x revenue - which is what an expensive strategic SaaS acquisitions would sell at. The average is 4x[0] - its crazy overpriced even with the growth rate (it's still growing into its valuation)

I think the price was driven up to 20x because many thought it would be acquired.

It also has a ton of short interest in it - so you really shouldn't be investing in it at this point. Do some more research outside of what the price is doing before doing anything (there are undervalued stocks out there)

[0] https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c6817033630aaf74d05421...

Yeah, I doubt I'll be investing in them. I can afford to park money in the long-term and take some risks but this one just seems stagnant.

Most of my assets are managed by a financial manager, but I do like to dabble with a smaller fund that I can risk losing entirely. I've actually had pretty good results, considering I'm not really skilled at this.

One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit. I look for companies who are getting free publicity and are being reviewed by people who know more about the tech/business than I do.

I then go watch the trading volume and look for fluctuations. I'll read everything I can find about the company, including things like comments from employees at sites where employees anonymously rate their employer.

So far, it has been pretty successful. I made some pretty good money on Yahoo! at one point. I also bought ~$20,000 worth of Tesla when it was priced at $24. I still own those, I've not sold them. There have been a few others and they've done well enough.

I am absolutely not skilled at this. I mostly just buy and hold and plan on selling when it reaches a certain price. I don't have any of it automated, or anything like that. I've never tried to short or do put options. I'm not even entirely sure what the last one is.

It is just me playing around and learning as I go. I never spend anything that I can't afford to lose. I tend to go really slow and do a lot of reading before buying anything.

I've also had some luck with a slightly modified method. When I go to the grocery store, I'll look and see what brands are most frequently in carts and what isn't fully stocked on the shelf. I'll then look up the parent company and make a note of it. If I see that brand continually in shopping carts (I peek, I don't ogle or take pictures) then I'll do more reading and buy some shars in their parent companies. I notice that they seem to have continual but slower growth than the tech companies.

It's more or less just a game. I'd absolutely not take investment advice from me and I'm pretty sure my methods are unsound and probably unorthodox. I am absolutely open to advice, however.

So, with that, I thank you immensely. I'll continue to keep an eye on Twilio but I won't jump in just yet. I may never jump in at all. It's just on my, 'mentioned positively a lot list.'

> One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit.

That's a great idea and I've found companies exactly like that (although as private companies - scouting for a VC). We're really in an advantageous position working in tech because we know which companies are doing well and where companies are spending their money.

One disadvantage is that a lot of gains are privatized or with VCs - and some of the best performing companies remain private for longer - but there is still some growth in public markets

I tend to follow the cloud, infosec, social and other tech public companies. I think the SaaS stocks are a bit overvalued at the moment, and there are too many that spend too much on sales and marketing to fuel growth. One of the great benefits of SaaS was that it could infiltrate companies from the bottom up and bypass the S&M process and customer acquisition costs, but there really aren't many of those - and even those companies that did do that, have ended up spending a lot on S&M

I did like Twilio a lot - I liked the Authy acquisition and growing out that way. I'm not sold on the "integration without programming" promise - a lot of companies have tried just that but it hasn't worked. You need dev platforms and developers. I was hoping Twilio would provide a drop-in oauth/openid server for enterprise because the current solutions there suck (serve both internal, intra and external auth backed by LDAP, AD, RDBMS etc.)

Theres a lot of value in their global integrations and routing - but i'm also not sure what the ceiling is for voice + SMS and outside of a handful of countries in emerging markets most messaging is application layer. Being able to push messages via WeChat, FB, WhatsApp etc. would be interesting

But you're right - can't go wrong with long term investments in these markets - either a fund or a basket of stocks you know. The Motley Fool posts are usually good value on getting up to date on some stocks, although there is a lot of people talking up or down their own investments there with what borders on FUD sometimes.

Thanks! It may not seem like it to you, but there's a lot to digest in your post. Before selling my company, I just had a big standard 401k. Now, I have someone who actually manages all that stuff for me.

It is quite a change. I've been retired for ten years, but I'm still getting used to certain things - and there were many things I had no compelling reason to learn.

Which is why I dabble in the market. I've even done some of my own bond selection. I am a sort of partial to bonds because then I can see what project it is that I'm supporting, find out who that project is supporting, and make choices that are both ethical and financially sound (less risky might be a better term).

It has been fascinating to learn some of this stuff. I do visit Mötley Fool sometimes but I mostly only use it as an educational resource. I'm not sure I can put my finger on it, but it just seems a little bit off to me. It's a vague thing, but it seems like they are trying to push me in a certain direction, like they are trying to influence not just what I should buy but the categories I should buy in - and I'm not really sure they have my best interests in mind.

I don't know if that makes any sense, really? It just seems off to me. It's like a feeling that I'm being manipulated. I'm pretty sure I'm not a paranoid schizophrenic or anything, it just isn't where I go for specifics. I happily go there to research and learn.

I still own a whole lot of shares in the now-parent company. I've been pondering unloading some of them and moving them to a more risky position. They are steady growth and I have no complaints but I'd like to put more into the account that I control and that is one way of doing it. Again, nothing that I can't afford to lose.

You've given me a lot to think about and I'm quite grateful. I'm always open to good advice. ;-) I freely admit there are many things I don't know.

> That's a great idea and I've found companies exactly like that (although as private companies - scouting for a VC). We're really in an advantageous position working in tech because we know which companies are doing well and where companies are spending their money.

Interesting! How did you start with such a role - scouting companies for VCs?

> When I go to the grocery store, I'll look and see what brands are most frequently in carts and what isn't fully stocked on the shelf. I'll then look up the parent company and make a note of it. If I see that brand continually in shopping carts (I peek, I don't ogle or take pictures) then I'll do more reading and buy some shars in their parent companies.

Read something like this in this book: https://www.amazon.com/Laughing-Wall-Street-Investing-Connec...

Never thought it could be applicable to tech too. Gave me something to think about.

To be absolutely clear, I'm not a skilled investor. I'm not a professional. I have absolutely no ability to speak authoritatively on the subject. I don't even know all the terminology involved in the investment industry.

In other words, don't take advice from me. ;-)

Tech startups are typically viewed as "growth" companies. They'll need to maintain ~30% YoY post-IPO to keep a steady market price.

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