Exactly; you are referring to survivorship bias -
The thing I live on today was Job Quittin' Sideproject #5. The first four died without ever letting me quit any jobs. Is #5 "survivorship"? Or is it "persistance"?
Let's say the chance of getting a business working, even for a smart guy, is only 10%. Does that mean you shouldn't try? Or does that mean it will take on average half a dozen attempts to make it work?
I like to think it's the latter.
Here's a bit that I wrote about all this a week or so ago:
http://www.expatsoftware.com/Articles/what-if-your-bootstrap...
I like "you gotta be in it to win it".
It's much, much lower, according to any reasonable estimation. For all startups, I've seen "less than 1%" on many occasions. That obviously excludes tons of failures that are never reported anywhere -- sometimes that are never even incorporated, despite trying to build/sell a product.
> Does that mean you shouldn't try?
For the vast majority of people, yes! "Try" has costs -- time, money, life, and relationships. To really try will often cost tens of thousands of dollars. Most people can't afford to gamble so much with such a tiny chance of success.
Are you thinking VC-backed startups, or maybe lumping them in to your calculation?
Remember, we're talking bootstrapped businesses designed for profitability. I think you'd be hard pressed to make ten real efforts in a row, learning lessons as you go, without getting one of them to stick.
For VC's, where "profitable and growing linearly" equates to failure, then sure, the odds are worse. But that's just another reason not to go that route.
tens of thousands of dollars
For what it's worth, the 4 big multi-year failures I reference above cost maybe a few thousand dollars total over the span of 10 years, and happened primarily in spare nights & weekends during the course of an otherwise active and non-ruined life. Most people who met me never knew it was happening at all, and no friday beers were missed as a result of the aforementioned bootstrapping.
If you decide to start a lifestyle business as opposed to a high-growth startup you may be more successful in terms of wealth and health.
[0] https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-busine...
They just don't want that other person to try, as if somebody else gets VC funding or launches a successful product, then it's less likely that you will be able to successfully do so, especially if you are in a similar space.
Talking somebody out of trying by convincing them that there is no chance of success is a lot easier than actually competing with them.
My own anecdata disagrees -- the people I know who give this advice are older people who have built a few companies and, likely, failed a few times.
That's also where I'm coming from. I lost $50k before I ever succeeded at anything, and it was punishing on my family, personal life, and long-term finances.
It's alarming to me when I meet people who idolize entrepreneurship and have no idea how risky and expensive it is. I meet people like this all the time, and I see them on HN from time to time, although I think HN is dominated more by people like me, who know that starting a company is gambling.
If you don't believe it's gambling, read about how good VCs are at picking winners (hint: not good). If even VCs can't pick a winner, how do you think an individual can objectively assess her own likelihood of success?
Venture capital is one of the highest-risk, highest-reward classes of mainstream investment. If you're starting a company, you are your own venture capitalist, at least at the beginning.
Nothing I've said is controversial or difficult to back up with facts, but it seems there are lots of rich/privileged people who think it's no big deal to lose tens of thousands of dollars and advise everyone to do the same, even though it's not feasible for most people.