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While I agree with what you are saying, your analogy is not completely accurate. Switching GUI is nowhere near switching the kernel in terms of risk and the hassle that might come with the change. The main reasons for inertia are the linux servers and the development stack that's built on top of linux servers. Most deployed Linuces have neither X.Org nor XFree86 installed on them.

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The kernel is already evolving constantly, and a major version upgrade has to be thoroughly tested before rolling it out on a production system. A fork won't be that different - if Linus switches the license tomorrow, most kernel devs will just move to the forked codebase.

A license change is a bad example. Nobody can switch the license for Linux. It has always been GPLv2-only, you'd need the approval of all contributors to the kernel to switch.

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