Switzerland: How buying real-estate can kill you financially/reasons for stocks
medium.com
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A lot of Chinese nationals are buying property in the states and Canada in order to accomplish the same thing
I wonder how this kind of cash parking affects property values?
But you don't have to guess, just look at property values for anything at all nice in Vancouver. Practically the whole city could not afford to buy a house there on their current income.
Go look at housing prices in every city on the west coast.
Eg. a large vertical block of tiny, tiny rooms which are just good enough to be livable, but with extremely expensive components.. designed to be parked and traded and never lived in.
The recent decline of sterling is great for foreigners interesten in acquiring London property -- London will always be London, brexit or no brexit. But it just got a lot more interesting for foreigners with businesses (or investments) abroad to relocate there.
Besides that, you will need to leave your shared apartment and go looking for one with at least 4 rooms. That'll easily cost you 2.5k-3.5k per month.
So while I agree that Switzerland is a nice place to be while 20-30, after that age it hugely depends on your situation. Got 2 kids and know some German? You might actually be better off in Germany.
> having your kid looked after for 5 days2-2,5k CHF / USD per month!
Yes but only when your kid is 2-3 years old. After that kindergarten is free. Superb elementary school, high-school is free; and on top Uni-Zurich and ETH, the MIT of Europe, is also almost free (costs like 500$ a semester).
> Besides that, you will need to leave your shared apartment and go looking for one with at least 4 rooms. That'll easily cost you 2.5k-3.5k per month.
Why? You're probably referring to some regulations. Well, if you have a wife and one kid, you can legally even live in a 1-bedroom apartment (formula for legal limit of grown-up people per apartment is "# of people = # of rooms + 1" - source p. 29: https://www.ekm.admin.ch/dam/data/ekm/dokumentation/material...)
Universities are way more on a level field in Europe than in the US. “Elite” universities will just be marginally better than good universities that come in the dozens and you probably haven’t heard of.
> Yes but only when your kid is 2-3 years old. After that kindergarten is free.
Yeah, you just forgot to mention that kindergarten starts at the age of 4, and is not 5 days a week, the whole day. It's 4 days a week, 3,5 hours a day. The rest still needs to be paid at the same rate I mentioned before. So you are talking here without really knowing your facts.
> Why? You're probably referring to some regulations. Well, if you have a wife and one kid, you can legally even live in a 1-bedroom apartment (formula for legal limit of grown-up people per apartment is "# of people = # of rooms + 1" - source p. 29: https://www.ekm.admin.ch/dam/data/ekm/dokumentation/material...)
So you are basically saying that someone who earns a shit-ton of money should live in a 1 bedroom apartment with their partner and child? I just can't answer to that...
No, I am not telling anybody to do anything. I am pointing to the existing legal possibilities because Zurich's landlords are arrogant and sometimes write clauses in their rent-contracts that "break" Swiss law ("only 1 person can live here"). I am trying to highlight that Zurich's jurisdiction is renter-friendly and laws are applied rigorously.
You can calmly rent-sign a contract with weird clauses, because they are invalid, so you can break them and the landlord can't kick you out for it. Worst case is you get infront of the "Schlichtungsbehörde" which is a pre-step before the court, where a volunteer-landlord, volunteer-renter-representative and a neutral party will decide over a dispute quickly (and cheaply). So please make sure you are member of mieterverband.ch, if you live in Zurich.
If someone it taking home ~300K CHF / year in some sort of support role in a bank in Zurich the above overheads don't seem to be such a deal breaker.
For more information, shoot me an e-mail. You find my contact details in my HN profile. (Disclaimer: I am a former programm and I recruit software engineers into Zurich, New York and Munich for a living now.)
3 kids, US Midwest, 36k/yr for daycare.
I'm honestly looking at it as a huge bonus (paid to myself) after 4-5 years. It keeps me from crying.
The mortgage system we have in the United States--characterized by: domination by the government (in the form of GSEs), long (30 year) fixed rate mortgages with no prepayment penalties, high leverage ratios (up to 19:1 or higher), and low spreads--is not the system used elsewhere. Other countries also tax mortgages and homes differently, and may have far more widespread rent regulations in place.
Rules of thumb and folksy wisdom that was developed in the context of the US system probably won't translate well to a very different one.
FWIW the OP's cost of living figures in the video included in the linked article seem a little low or are assuming best case. Sure you can get health insurance cover at 250.- CHF a month but that will be at the highest franchise (i forget the English word) so if you do get sick it's going to cost you 2,500 CHF before the insurance kicks in.
1,200.- CHF a month seems low for Zürich, but also high for a single room with no kitchen. I'm paying a little more than that for 3.5 rooms with a kitchen, garage, cave, etc. No, I'm not in Zürich or Genève.
400.- CHF a month on food seems about right if you never eat out at all ever. And sure you can spend as little as 100.- CHF a month on travel, but you're in Switzerland - get out and see a bit of it, go snowboarding/skiing in the winter season.
I think the word you're looking for is deductible
I think we've already reached a point where people are starting to complain about corporations getting too big and becoming too powerful.
What drove increases in the stock market in the past few decades has been the replacement of many small businesses by few large corporate entities.
Economies of scale have been a double-edged sword; while they have allowed consumers to purchase non-essential goods and services (such as electronic devices and appliances, holidays, clothing, entertainment...) for cheaper, they have also been responsible for driving up the prices of essentials likes housing, transport, electricity, medicine, education, etc (e.g. by shifting the workforce to big cities where corporate HQs are)...
I think we'll reach a point in the near future when city-dwellers will start running out of resources to support basic living essentials and this will force them out of cities - This will drive real estate prices down but it will also drive down stock prices which depend on that lifestyle.
I think the bubble that we're in now affects every person on the planet so if/when it bursts, the repercussions will be massive.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110...
That said, it's entirely possible that the market is irrationally high; the question then becomes how long it can remain that way. There's a famous Keynes quote - “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.”
If you do think stocks are overpriced, it may be advisable to create a disciplined strategy for profit taking - selling a few percent of your net assets each time the market increases by, say, 10%.
Could you give an example of this happening within a country as a whole? People may abandon city X for city Y or move to suburbs, but what more usually happens in a depression is homelessness within the city or extreme densification (sharing rooms).
But I would say that, here is Seattle, and probably all along the West coast, you do have foreign investment, mainly from China, driving up the cost of real estate.
I think I wrote:
> "the land doubled in value and is worth 200k CHF"
Even if you add up not having to pay rent and possible sale of the house (on which y) you would still end up much better with stocks:
House: You buy the house, after 30 years let's say the value stays the same: You own 500.000 CHF worth of house. (Assuming you had no repairs and the value stayed the same, which is VERY optimistic). You sell the house. you pay a whopping tax on that.
Stocks: You paid rent of 1600 CHF (numbers I used in the article). Within 30 years, you burn ~500.000 CHF on rent but you make 4-8 million CHF with conservative stocks assuming a 7-10% compound interest rate. In Switzerland, you sell this stock tax-free.
Is there anything I am missing?
Like, lots, I think.
I don't own property in Switzerland, but you write as if property transactions are in cash up-front. Instead, you put some money down (why the GP mentioned leverage), and the amount you don't make back by investing in stocks is this opportunity cost. The amount saved in rent is also subject to compound interest; unless you are worried that this person is a serial home purchaser those savings will be invested in the market.
I'm sure you can come up with more details and that the market probably wins, but you asked what you were missing.
In the U.S., there will be gains on real estate since the average real property appreciation rate is 5-10%, about the same for stocks. But, you must look at cash on cash. I buy a $500k house for $100k cash. You must calculate the stock return on the $100k. However, you calculate appreciation for real estate on the total value of the land and house.
tldr: 5x appreciation on house vs. stock, with tax write-offs and no rent.
How does one go about calculating that? Or reading someone else's calculations? For real estate prices I can check out the Case-Shiller, for P/R I got nothing.
It's pretty rare to see a home both for sale and for rent, so you'd likely be comparing oranges for sale with apples for rent. A lot of the magic of Case-Shiller is in finding valid comparables over time, so I'm hoping someone has put together a similar time regional series for rents themselves. Maybe not -- it's not like there's a huge market for derivatives on rental properties.
At the end, I pay fewer taxes (I'm not expecting ever to finish paying my property in Switzerland), I pay less rent and I invest more in stocks.
This (my opinion) is coming from someone who's indifferent between renting vs. owning, so is trying to make the decision purely on financial factors.
Reasons why this article does't apply in the US:
(1) The "eigenmietwert" the author writes about is known as an "imputed income tax". The idea is, most assets generate income: bonds pay interest, stocks pay dividends, etc. A house, which is an asset, always generates economic benefit, it's just a question of the owner (who lives in it), or to a renter (who pays rent). When you think about it, it's kind of absurd that in the US, an owner pays income tax if they rent their house to someone else, but not to themself. Taxes like this are an attempt to level the playing field.
(2) The US allows homeowners to deduct mortgage interest (up to a point) from taxable income. Why you can't deduct interest on credit cards or auto loans, but you can on mortgage interest, beats the hell out of me?
(3) The US taxes capital gains. California, where I live, has a state-level _surtax_ on capital gains. I'm not sure whether the author is correct about Swiss tax treatment of capital gains, but have no reason to think he's wrong.
(4) Interest rates are artificially cheap in the US, as some others have pointed out, due to GSE interference in the mortgage market. There's absolutely no reason Fannie/Freddie should encourage people to buy houses. I also think it's ridiculous that the FHA uses taxpayer funds to let low-income borrowers get cheap loans. Let them rent. Renting isn't some kind of hardship, in many ways, it's better than owning, you have less downside risk and it's easier to relocate for a job.
(5) In places like California, where we have Prop 13, property taxes don't reassess -- ever. So, barring a sale, someone who bought a house 30 years ago pays essentially what they paid in property tax then, now. This encourages exactly what you'd think, people move less and try to stay in their homes as long as possible, even performing absurd tax gymnastics like "one-wall remodels" to avoid having their tear-down "remodels" reassessed.
(6) "1031 exchanges" and other gimmicks let property owners sell their properties--AT A GAIN--and trade up to a larger place, without ever paying tax. How crazy is this!?
(7) In most jurisdictions, property taxes are federally deductible; I get no such deduction as a renter, though it could be argued that my rent is lower as a result (due to the owner's tax writeoff).
At bottom, this stems from a cultural attitude we have in the US (really the entire Anglosphere) that homeownership is some sort of God-given right/natural thing to aspire to. I wish this attitude would change. I wouldn't mind renting but it's hard to justify given how tilted US law is toward homeownership.
In the UK landlords are allowed to deduct mortgage interest from taxable rental income, but this is currently being phased out. (A good thing in my opinion)
There is a mortgage cap of around a million dollars where the deduction ends, which is only relevant in a small number of real estate markets like California, Seattle, New York, and so on.
> Why you can't deduct interest on credit cards or auto loans, but you can on mortgage interest, beats the hell out of me?
That sounds logical to me as well. In a way, a house is just a huge "consumer credit".
Here is a photo of one of these tear-down remodels in La Jolla near the beach[1].
(2) I'm sure deductible mortgage interest is a thing because the government has determined it's better to own a home (to them) than to rent it. Much better than "owning" credit cards and getting a break on those once a year. Plus you've got phase-outs when doing taxes, etc. Of my student loans, only a small fraction of them get a deduction on interest, regardless of how many other ones I have.
(As an American, if you open a bank account in Switzerland you have to declare a special form, stating that you will correctly declare taxes to the US etc. I think you even have to fill this form if you hold a green-card or ever worked/paid taxes in your life in the US).
People coming here with suitcases full of money was one thing but a totally other level was that some Swiss bankers really flew over to the US with encrypted laptops "to get new customers".
LOL, not on the coastal states.
If it's the west coast, people earn 50k while starting house prices are 500k+
As far as Houston goes, look for yourself:
https://www.zillow.com/houston-tx/houses/
A dilapidated tear down in an undesirable area is about what you'll get for under $100k in Houston
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6858-Evans-St-Houston-TX-...
Anyway, on the west coast of the USA housing is extraordinarily expensive and many multiples of median income.
The interest rate on mortages is always higher compared to the interest rate on leverage for stock (by using the stock itself as collateral).
You can get close to the yield on swiss confederation bonds if you buy well priced, leveraged ETFs.
Obviously that interest rate is as stable if not more stable than the interest rates on mortages.
Please DO NOT buy stocks with money from a mortage. you're just giving up at least 1% yield.
Please note that with leverage (stocks or real estate) is is possible to lose more money than you invest.
https://www.quora.com/How-does-a-land-value-tax-not-create-d...
Switzerland is not very home ownership friendly, at least there are very little tax incentives for it (personally I'd rather have people invest their wealth into productive things rather than real estate, so I find it good). In large cities most places are owned by banks/insurances/other real estate companies and rented out.
[1] https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/wealth-ranking_swiss-are-world-...