Hacker News Reader

Hacker News

Comment by shin433333 | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

shin433333

China's too late.

China's Debt to ratio is a staggering 833%

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/10/23/everything-we-think-...

Why China Lost About $3.8 Trillion To Capital Flight In The Last Decade

(FDI was only 1.3T over the same decade, leading to a massive loss)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/insideasia/2017/02/22/china-cap...

So no money.....and recently it prevented South Korean companies from withdrawing assets from China. Now companies around the world knows. Who's gonna invest in China now?

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/national/19352-e...

View on HN

I think there's an important distinction missing here.

First, NET FDI (foreign direct investment) into China was 1.3 trillion USD over the last decade, not nominal: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?locat....

FDI is a pretty imperfect measure for a short period of time. If a Chinese company buys foreign assets, say mines in Africa or forests in South America, that counts as a net outflow. In the long run though, those investments may well pay off handsomely. For a rapidly developing country with a high savings rate, there's no inherent reason why Chinese companies investing abroad should be an indication of doom for China.

As someone who regularly does business with Chinese companies, it has been my experience that it has never been harder to remove currency from China. It is true that capital controls have become increasingly tight.

Edit:

Additionally, given the regulatory difficulties of foreign companies investing in China, it's not surprising that outflows of investment by Chinese companies outsize incoming foreign investment into China.

if someone is interested in the actual situation, the following videos are a good starting point

Davos 2017 - China's Pivot to World Markets

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8HsNfQIZQs

Davos 2017 - Strategic Update: The Future of Energy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wvln5Ce_Sk

Just for your info, China has been said to crush by the west media for over 30 years or even longer since PRC founded.

China's also been said to be an unstoppable juggernaut that will rule the world for the next century by western media.

Funny, that.

That 833% figure is for financial assets and gives the UK's figure at 1008%. It just indicates that banks are doing loan swaps and the like.

The semi communist system actually makes China quite stable. In the west if the mortgage holders can't repay the bank kind of goes bust, in China the government would just lend it more money. Well... I guess the west bails out too but more so in China I think.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com