You say "If they have 20 qubits in two months" and "if they have 50 within a couple of years". Doesn't the article say that they have 50?
I'm unclear on this, because I have yet to see a published result talking about running Shor's algorithm on a quantum computer beyond the NMR-based physical simulation and the adiabatic one (which is just annealing). What exactly is IBM claiming to have done here?