Wait, So 20 Phones On 4 Carriers Outsold 1 Phone On 1 Carrier? Shocking. | Hacker News Reader

Wait, So 20 Phones On 4 Carriers Outsold 1 Phone On 1 Carrier? Shocking.

techcrunch.com

38 pointsaresant33 comments

Why do people always feel the need to point out that Android is supported by multiple manufacturers whenever the issue of Android vs. iPhone market share is mentioned, as though they think they've just dropped a bomb on the conversation? Is this just some bizarre way of standing up for Apple's honor?

> But comparing iPhone sales to Android sales is comparing an apple to a bushel of oranges.

No it isn't. The real story is mobile OS market share trends, and how that relates to third-party application development. From that perspective the underlying hardware manufacturers and cellular carriers are largely irrelevant.

However, this particular report doesn't take into account the iPhone 4 sales numbers, so take it with a grain of salt...

It's also a re-run -- this article only highlights exactly what lead the mac into almost 15 years of marginal market share and an ad campaign based on poor grammar. :)

Hilariously, I called this 2 years ago in response to a TechCrunch article that said Android would fail.

http://mattmaroon.com/2008/08/18/android-ftw/

I think the more important point here is that mobile app developers are going to want to get the most bang for their buck. If there are more Android phones out there than iPhones, then the decision between preferred platforms swings in favor of Android (disregarding questions of target-market, demographics, ease of development, etc.). It doesn't matter if the OS is on 1 phone or 20 (ok, well sort of; it does make it more difficult to program for Android when you have to account for multiple screen sizes and hardware capabilities).

I think what matters most to developers is the number of customers who are buying apps, and how much they are willing to spend. Right now, the ratio free/paid apps in the Android Marketplace is a lot higher than in the App Store. There is one way to pay for paid apps in the Marketplace, and that's through the tedious Google Checkout. Quite a contrast with the iTunes Store, which already has 100 million credit cards on file.

Even when there are more Android devices than there are iOS devices (which will take a little while, there are 100 million iDevices out there), I doubt Android will be more profitable for developers than iOS (not even counting the inroads Apple is making with iAds). I think Android will have to outnumber iDevices by a factor 2 or 3 before that happens.

Someone who gets it.

On top of all that, Google are only allowing a few countries to even sell apps on the store, no Australia yet. And despite all the calls for it to get started, we have not heard any word on when this will happen.

I think that with the average person getting into Android devices, they are going to start to buy more and more apps, but we have not heard for google once again on how well the marketplace is doing, and how much it has changed.

Until those two things change, I will stick with Apple.

That's true for independent app developers for sure. I guess I was thinking more along the lines of companies that have supporting apps rather than the people who make money directly off the apps (Amazon, Skype, Gilt, etc).

For me, it also matters a lot how difficult it is to write an app that runs well and looks good on every device, irrespective of screen size and resolution, hardware buttons, etc.

Having done plenty of web design, and a little Mobile Java, the pain of getting things right for a sensibly large proportion of browsers/devices is something that I love that iPhone development lacks.

I haven't tried any Android development, but I can't help but believe the situation must be somewhat worse.

Android is enjoying the same pent up demand for a modern SmartPhone that the iPhone enjoyed for a couple of years. If you use Sprint, T-Mobile or Verizon and want a phone with a good third party app library and a modern web browser you don't really have any choices. It's Android or nothing. I suspect things will continue to be volatile. WM7, BBOS6, new HP/Palm hardware, MeeGo, etc is going to shake things up. Eventually the iPhone will be on other carriers in the US. In 2 or 3 years things could look completely different.

What I find interesting is the Samsung Galaxy S. Despite Android being a "free" OS, which would supposedly enjoy a price advantage over the other OS players (Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc), Android phones continue to be sold at the same price-point (in the US) as the iPhone ($199).

But now, the Samsung Galaxy S is being sold at discount pricing. It can be found for $99 (with contract), and even cheaper.

Over the long term, it will be interesting to see whether Android can support the margins that device manufacturers need, or if competition among Android device manufacturers will drive margins to near zero in a game of volume. I wonder if the Samsung Galaxy S is the first example in a long term trend in discounting with Android devices. So far, that does not seem to be the case, as buzz for the Samsung "feels" mild, while carrier supported devices (Droid, etc) are doing well.

Its certainly more complicated given the third player (carriers), and how they subsidize device purchases, but if manufacturer margins do drop because of significant competition, Apple may be one of the few device manufacturers to thrive in this market.

That is, until Apple gets on another carrier in the U.S. We all know it’s going to happen, it’s just a question of when. Will it be early next year? Next Summer?

Next winter? Next solar eclipse? Next ice age? Seriously, did anybody who saw this headline not know it was authored by Siegler?

In contrast to the always fair and balanced Michael Arrington, you mean?

In most countries where the iPhone is sold, Apple already has contracts with multiple carriers. Ofcourse, in most countries all carriers use GSM. Until LTE is widespread in the US, Apple's only choice to offer iPhones on other networks is to make one that has a CDMA radio. They may do so, or they could wait it out for a year or two.

Except I wasn't talking about other countries, I was talking about the U.S. Nothing you say here invalidates my point. "They may do so" you say. That was my point. We're still waiting for Apple to do something on another carrier. In the U.S.

I didn't set out to invalidate your post, just to offer an explanation as to why, in the US, the iPhone isn't offered on any other network but AT&T, and what would need to happen for that to change.

It sounded as if you're not convinced that the iPhone will ever be available on any network other than AT&T. Given that Verizon is by far the largest carrier in the US, I can't imagine Apple not wanting a piece of that action. But fact remains, Verizon is still on CDMA, and that tech has had its best days.

As Steve Jobs said at D8:

"Apple is a company that has succeeded by choosing which horses to ride technically, that have a future, that are headed up. Different pieces of technology kind of go in cycles. They have their springs and summers and autumns and then go to their graveyard of technology. We try to pick things that are in their springs."

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/06/01/d8-steve...

At least Apple is consistent about choosing bad horses, eh? (G4, G5, AT&T)...

This article completely misses the point.

>The real interesting data would be if any single Android phone is outselling the iPhone.

This isn't a handset war, it's a platform war. So, yes, Android outselling iPhone is meaningful, even if Android is available on more carriers and have more handsets. If that's the way to get the bigger user base, then Apple has a suboptimal market strategy.

Shocking is the fact that darling, must have, hype phone from 1 (really crappy) carrier is no longer outselling every smartphone under the sun.

That it's no longer "obvious" that if you build just for iPhone you've reached 90% of the market.

That if you're serious about having a mobile pressense, you have to build, maintain, support etc. two rather different platforms.

That's the point of open source. Take what in the hands of a single company would be a monoculture and turn it into a vibrant market with lots of choice.

Yes, of course it wins. It's a better development model.

Didn't work for Desktop Linux. Many fans of Linux on the desktop would tell you its better than Windows yet it didn't come close to " winning"

Same here. Android owes its success to licensing far more than it does to being Open Source

"didn't"? More like "hasn't yet"---and while I don't necessarily predict that desktop Linux will "win", whatever that might mean, it continues to gain market share.

"hasn't yet" is the same thing people have said for the last decade.

The computing world is changing dramatically. There might not be anything called a 'desktop' in 8 years. I'd wager that what you're using instead will involve Linux in some way.

2000 will be the year of Linux on the desktop!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desktop_Linux#Year_of_Desktop_L...

While this is perfectly true, Linux is A) not dead and B) gaining market share, so it is simply disingenuous to claim that it has lost or that it definitively didn't "win". To the extent that it's even meaningful to refer to "winners" and "losers", the game's still on.

I find it interesting that despite all the buzz about Android surpassing iPhone in sales, the users of the iPhone is still much more loyal than the Android users. A considerably higher percentage of Android users were considering moving to iPhone or another platform, than were iPhone users.

This means that while android has explosive growth, apple can sell it's new phones to it's existing customers, which is OK, but let's look at RIM and where they are heading.

Customer loyalty is nice ofcourse, and Apple scores well in that department. Of the iPhone owners who were asked, an extraordinary 89% indicated they'd buy another iPhone.

What's more telling is that 29% of the Android phone owners said they did not want another Android phone, and 72% of those people said their next phone would be an iPhone.

As for Blackberry, it's all downhill for RIM from here on out. Of all Blackberry owners, only 42% answered that they'd buy another Blackberry, and 69% of those who wanted to switch would choose an iPhone.

http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-switch....

The relevant issue in this article is that this will definitely alter the mindshare aspect of the platforms.

I doubt it. We're talking about trend info from a market research firm that estimates that in one quarter, the one preceding the launch of a widely publicized new iPhone model, more customers opted for Android handsets.

And even if next quarter Android handset sales continue to be higher than iPhone sales, iOS' installed base will still be higher than Android's, with all the iPod touches and iPads out there. That's not to say that Android devices won't ever outnumber iOS devices -- that day simply isn't here yet.

The question that comes to mind after reading the article is "Who cares?"

Nowadays - in my humble opinion - people purchase phones to satisfy a need inclusive of the basic phone call one. Some users think that the X phone is cool or easier to use than the other one. If say the iPhone is cooler than an Android based one, then no article from Techcrunch is going to convince the user to purchase one over the other.

Let's not forget that the people that do not follow stats and capabilities and specifications and purchase a phone because it is cool are not going to read Techcrunch therefore the article brings the "Who cares" question in my mind.

Concluding, don't we have better things to discuss than oh how the mighty iPhone has been surpassed by the even mightier Android one?

Thought exactly the same thing when I read the title of the link.

Also thought "Bet that MG Siegler guy wrote that, don't think I'll bother reading it."

Who cares?

Well, as an application developer I care.

As someone who runs a mobile company, do I need to start looking at android, and even other OS?

why? if you are an application developer you should care about market statistics not what bloggers think of the phones.

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