From your article:

> Although 12 percent of the population will experience a year in which they find themselves in the top 1 percent of the income distribution, a mere 0.6 percent will do so in 10 consecutive years.

When you ask someone whether they will one day be in the top 1%, I don't think they are interpreting that question as "will you be there for a brief moment?" The question implies some level of permanence. So 38.4% are fooling themselves.