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Comment by mtgx | Hacker News Reader

Although driven by their own policy, the fact that almost half of the new cars in Norway are electric/hybrid vehicles is incredible. I think they know EVs are on a growing trend, and they just get to see it at an accelerated rate than everyone else - but they probably believe the same will happen elsewhere, just 5-10 years later. I think it's unlikely that this wasn't at least a small factor in their decision.

I also believe that as EVs grow to 5%, 10%, 20% of the global sales for cars, Norway will increase its "hedging" over the next few years, which will show some direct correlation between EVs and Norway's decision to hedge its oil stock risk.

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One should factor in that Norway's petroleum exports are ~50% natural gas (of which <1% goes to fuels for cars) and ~50% oil (of which ~60% becomes fuel for cars, trucks, tractors, excavators, airplanes, etc.).

So the total "negative exposure" towards EVs if all cars everywhere become electric is <30%.

Furthermore, the retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel has not yet shown any decline in Norway [1], despite EV-subsidising policies being in effect for a decade. So decreased fuel sales volume has a many-year (perhaps even decade) long lag behind increased EV sales. (The average Norwegian car is 17 years when it is scrapped.)

[1] https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/petrol... - petroleum product sales statistics, English description, you can export to csv file.

> the retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel has not yet shown any decline in Norway [1]

Odd. The stats you point to say otherwise. Says motor gasoline is down (1.9%) and diesel is up (4.7%) – so it's kind of a wash.

More interestingly (in the context of this news of divestment) the total figures are down year on year on year

(in 1000 litres units)

    2012    9 635 521
    2013    9 279 405
    2014    8 995 567
    2015    8 827 093
    2016    8 790 684

In light of those figures divestment looks sensible.

No, you have to look at just the sum of dutiable diesel and gasoline, which shows no decrease (even an increase). Most of the change you're summarizing above is reduced usage of light fuel oil (for heating), marine fuel and heavy distillate, particularly the latter two. Those changes are not caused by EVs.

Oil in the arctic costs $40 or more to extract. Oil in Saudi-Arabia costs, what, $15? So at the very least there is a 50% exposure as the oil price will fall for all oil. It is not like Norway is the sole exporter. If oil price drops and there is a race to the bottom, only the cheap sources will sell. Norwegian oil is among the most expensive to produce (that is currently operated with the hope of profit).

If oil price drops too far you coild imagine gasoline and diesel generators taking over for gas :p or at least NLG taking a hit... the energy market is coupled.

Why would it happen elsewhere, unless other countries adopt the same tax policies? The main stimuli behind it was ridiculous tax on new vehicles that was absent on electric cars - if a new Tesla S costs the same as a basic VW Passat, it's a no brainer that Tesla sells better. But even in very wealthy countries(UK) electric cars are still much more expensive than normal cars and when I was buying 2 new cars last year it just didn't make any sense to purchase electric - the saving on a petrol car vs. Electric would pay for more years of fuel than I plan to keep the car for. Now, if those other cars were taxed at 100% or if the fuel was even more expensive than it is - then sure, it would make perfect sense. But as it stands now, no one is breaking into the cheap car market.

It is highly relevant though because it shows people are willing to buy electric at comparable price to ICE cars, even in a country with a spread out population and harsh climate.

Until the Norway experiment one could not know how much people care about using a fundamentally different car technology.

It shows that with likelyhood as EV prices drop sales will take off elsewhere.

But many of the electric car owners live in the cities. Here they can drive in the bus lanes and don't pay the road tolls. This makes an electric car an excellent commuter choice.

> It is highly relevant though because it shows people are willing to buy electric at comparable price to ICE cars, even in a country with a spread out population and harsh climate.

But because of the harsh climate, Fenno-Scandinavians are already used to plug their car when they park it at home or at work (to warm up the engine and the interior in wintertime). Less change, an habit of seeing plugs a bit everywhere and the knowledge that it is not so much of a practical, legal, financial problem to have such a network installed, so less reluctance to switch, compared to inhabitants of southern Europe who imagine, rightly or wrongly, major obstacles to overcome for everyday use.

Unless I'm mistaken, new electric cars in Norway have a subsidy of almost 50%, and are exempt from highway tolls.

So your stats have to be viewed through a heavy prism: it's not a customer trend as much as a government push.

This has been true due to the VAT and emissions tax exemption. The VAT exemption on PEVs will be dropped in 2020.

Also, a proposal has recently been made for a tax on heavy electrics (Tesla's). It will add $11687 to the purchase price of a Tesla X, before the now exempted VAT is added.

Road tolls for PEVs will be increased to half of ICE vehicles'.

It's incredible if electric cars were priced comparably relative to ICE cars, which they are not in Norway

Electrical cars are priced comparably to ICE cars (after subsidies). The main reason electrical cars are selling so good is not the price of the car, but rather all the other subsidies. Free pass through toll roads (which can be pretty expensive), free parking, free ferries and almost free fuel. Most car trips are short enough that range isn’t a problem.

Electrical cars are cheap in Norway compared to other cars, especially compared to the same situation in other countries.

It's not like they're cheap, but the fees are insanely high for ICE cars in Norway.

Example: A BMW M550i is from what I can see $73,400 in the US and $135,300 in Norway. That's 82 percent more. The difference is way smaller for electric cars.

The fees are "sanely" high for ICE cars in Norway. Whats "insane" is our refusal to price the pollution externalities elsewhere.

Bingo. I looked up the vehicle example and the first search result talks about it hitting 60mph in 4 seconds. That kind of car is hit heavily by Norwegian taxes, as they are in part based on engine displacement.

It's not based on engine displacement, it's based on emissions.

Pretty much. Most of that was introduced back when Think was the height of EV, and very few were interested.

Come Tesla, and suddenly all the rich people in Oslo wanted one so they could bypass the commuters by driving in the bus lanes.

The rest of the nation is still very much an ICE nation. When you have to drive a half hour or more to do certain types of shopping when you live outside the cities, they are pretty much required.

In spring I drove 500 km in Norway between Oslo and Bergen in a leased eGolf from 2016. The whole trip took 9 hours versus 7.5 hours in an ICE car. The extra time is just time at quick charging stations that I had to use 4 times. The trip is over mountains with over 1Km up and that kills the battery much quicker than the promised 200km of range.

On a more flatter terrain around Oslo the car could go around 150km. This is more than enough for any kind of shopping. The newer eGolf almost doubles the range making it absolutely non-issue if one gets car today.

The real reason is why electrical car has not been popular with less wealthy people is that cars in Norway are heavily taxed making one a heavy investment that one sticks to and people here are rather conservative. But attitude is changing.

ICE cars in Norway enjoy a 25% sales tax and quite a lot of taxes for the co2 emisions, engine size etc. Most low end cars end up just short of 100% in taxes, high end cars up to 200%, and luxury cars are a lot more.

Electric cars would not sell anywhere near as good if they weren't exempt from taxes and cost twice as much as they do now.

> and quite a lot of taxes for the co2 emisions, engine size etc

In other words, when you take away the implicit subsidies for the unpriced carbon, electric cars become cost-competitive?

(In Norway, the electric grid is primarily renewable/hydro based[1]... yes, I realize this argument is different for countries with different electrical makeups)

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Norway

In macro economics, perhaps. To the individuals doing the purchasing, it's their short term expenses that matter most.

And that’s horrible because they’re not only financing Tesla with car purchases, but also tax money and by this large national wealth fund. Why burn your own resources to someone else’s benefit? They don’t develop anything for themselves this way

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