The issue with sending a tree of layers is that this prevents some important optimizations: avoiding overdraw with early Z becomes impossible, because your app doesn't know anything about the positions of the scrollable layers and so has to be conservative and paint all of their contents. So you trade a frame of latency for lots of overdraw, which is a tradeoff I'm not really comfortable making. (Note that today, almost all apps overdraw like crazy anyway, but that should be fixed.) :)
> Further, Microsoft engineers have said that hardware overlays are coming, in which the graphics card pulls content from the windows as it's sending the video out the port, rather than taking an extra frame time to paint the windows onto a composited surface.
This seems like the best solution to me. It allows apps to paint content intelligently to prevent overdraw while avoiding any latency.