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Do we consider a case where a "crash" doesn't happen? Say we might have a war or some other global disaster at some point, but not an economic crash. Is that so improbable?

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Without defining a timescale, yes, it's very improbable. Feedback loops tend to develop in the markets, where eventually asset prices rise because people buy the assets since they've been rising for a long time. If nothing else happens, that at least is sure to lead to a crash at some point.

Now, whether there's probably going to be a crash in the next 10 years is not something I'd care to bet on, although the odds are far from 0. Overall, the game is not predicting crashes as much as it is being prepared for them when they do come.

I guess I meant that looking back in history, I'd say there's a good chance that we'll start a world war, or upset the climate or something, and that will "crash" economy, not economy itself.

Sanctions have always been a pretty good indicator of war when levied from one sovereign to another. That indicator has probably gone from flashing yellow to red recently.

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