72 days ago I said to buy in at $3k: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15259134
Both times people were skeptical. I'm not sure there's any moral to this, but it's been an interesting few months.
There's not, you're like every other financial analyst claiming the market will go up or down tomorrow. Your whole analysis is basically "buy low/sell high". That's not meant to be an insult, there's just nothing in your posts justifying being correct.
Cryptocurrency is pure speculation. You can't know if an exchange is going to blow up or get defrauded or hacked. You can't know how regulators are going to treat it in the future unless you're in the room. Then there is understanding forks and the development process and the drama around that. Then you could always get hacked and lose your money.
It's a financial instrument requiring enormous amounts of concentration and technical ability just to participate at the baseline. Which is fine if you already have enough money to afford the time to do that, and to afford a complete loss of investment. It's always fundamentally about what level of risk you are willing to tolerate.
Two months from now, $10k could be seen as a completely reasonably buy-in price when it hits $30k. We just have no idea how high it's going to go because it's the first of its kind.
And yes, maybe you buy at the top of a crash and your portfolio drops 50%, but then months later it recovers to 100% above the point where it crashed previously.
All of the things that have happened to Bitcoin and bitcoin services (Silk Road) make me think that if cryptocurrency is going to stay around, it will cycle just as the stock market and businesses do, which means there will be plenty of opportunities down the line to make 1000% gains -- in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
Until you have regulators on your side (which means a government isn't going to raid an exchange), and much of the hacking and drama goes away, it's never going to be more than technically complex gambling.
If someone sold everything they have and bet it on red in roulette (47.4% chance of win), even if they win I'd still call the idea stupid.
Bitcoin is currently a risky investment and investing in it is not a good idea and is closer to gambling - regardless of the final outcome.
Bitcoin seems to be driven purely by speculation right now. Before the next breakthrough, which may or may not happen, the only reason Bitcoin is so high is that people think it is a good idea to buy.
Totally this. I get asked by friends if they should buy in (or buy more) and my answer is always "if you can afford to lose it, sure". I feel like people asking if they should buy or not right now will be far too distracted by the volatility to profit. If you're asking this (in the hope of a black and white "yes/no" answer) then you will probably also panic sell if it drops 10%, which would be nothing in the context of this year.
Dollar cost averaging is what I suggest to my friends (and again, only if they are "happy" to potentially lose a percentage of it quickly as much as they gain). Of course, nobody wants to hear that!
Oh, wait ...
It's just gambling and speculation. Some will win, some will lose. It's fine if you jump on the train and play, but don't be surprised when the bubble pops.
People lose money because they sell. Sometimes because they need to sell independently of what the price is doing.