Can we predict a financial crisis? Does it matter?

If it is possible to predict a financial crisis, then it is possible to make a profit off of that crisis. The immediately obvious conclusion is then that it is worth provoking financial crises when it is possible to predict them.

In Michael Lewis' book The Big Short, this is exactly what several folks did when they figured out how to use credit default swaps to short CDO bonds.

http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0...

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/students/dunlop/2009-CDOme...