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Comment by rogerbinns | Hacker News Reader

I give an estimate with an error margin, that is usually larger. eg something like "that will take about 3 weeks, plus or minus 2 months". The plus or minus bit reflects the uncertainty in requirements, things that could change etc.

Often it is the case the goal can already be achieved with existing functionality, but may not be as direct or elegant. That is why I include the "minus" bit covering this scenario where a solution is already there.

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> I give an estimate with an error margin, that is usually larger. eg something like "that will take about 3 weeks, plus or minus 2 months"

I can’t tell if you’re being serious. How do people respond to such a non-estimate?

3 weeks minus 2 months...I'd probably ask if that means it might be done already

Yes, that was precisely the point with "Often it is the case the goal can already be achieved with existing functionality, but may not be as direct or elegant".

I am very serious. My clients respond very well because it helps them plan better. The problem with a traditional one number estimate is you don't see the error bars so they don't know how to treat "3 weeks".

My approach also helps start a discussion about how to reduce the size of the plus/minus bit, such as reducing scope, breaking into multiple pieces etc.

And the minus bit coming to negative time works well too. It becomes a decision about using what is already there even if not perfectly suited versus doing the new work, and how much of it to do.

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