1) If we're also talking about how the cost of health insurance might change then you could be correct about the very poorest. It's a bit hard to say.

If we're only talking about taxes paid, then you are wrong there.

2) I think that the whole "over the 10 year period" is a bit of a red herring. The US tax system isn't getting set in concrete with the (potential) passage of this bill. Numerous things will almost certainly change over the next 10 years. Tax breaks set to expire will get extended. Rates will get tinkered with. It's hard to know what might happen. Because of this I think the short term effects matter much much more than what is theoretically set to happen in 10 years.