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Comment by mikebenfield | Hacker News Reader

> Two possible silver linings if it does get removed on the 14th:

Well, here's my bet on what will happen:

3. There will be no immediate catastrophic consequences. Over time, the Internet will become less amenable to innovation and small players and will just overall be worse than it would otherwise. But there will be no sudden dramatic change that will spur action for people who weren't already concerned.

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Over time the Internet in the United States will become less amenable to innovation. There are other countries in the world, some of which will stick to their guns and keep their net neutrality laws (or their line sharing requirements, which create the competitive pressures needed to accomplish the same thing). Startups will fare better in those other countries.

Among other things this is an issue of competitiveness for the United States.

Unfortunately the US is the biggest market. So for businesses tou habe little choice but to play by the non-neutral rules.

Worse, China is the next biggest market, but the Internet in China is even worse as far as innovation goes (censorship etc.). Europe and Japan also have various problems as far as the Internet goes, due to their strict copyright laws and other innovation-stifling rules (right to be forgotten, etc.). I doubt China will change, given their totally different view of what the Internet should look like, but there is some hope.

Eventually some country or federation of countries will recognize the opportunity to grab some of the market once America becomes less startup-friendly. It may even happen in the developing world somewhere, in countries that are being mostly ignored today, taking the rest of the world by surprise.

I think this is the most likely short-term outcome, too. And what's worse is that this outcome will make it significantly harder to get back net neutrality in the future. Peeling back each anti-consumer policy one-by-one will be necessary because of the way that the ISPs will frame the debate in the future.

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