Putty binaries are all signed, which is what you should be looking at when authenticating a release. Whether you fetch them over SSL is of little importance.
Edited to add: ARP-spoofing the right LAN requires spearphishing and APT, which I think also require significant resources.
I was thinking more about employees, or students at universities, or such. I believe I've seen tools that ARP-spoof and then automatically detect downloads of ELF or PE files and trojanize them, all without requiring almost any knowledge from the attacker. I don't know if any of these tools detect Putty and fix its signature too, but it wouldn't be hard to do.
Signing doesn't prevent downgrade attacks, HTTPS does.
Do you know the version of PuTTY you have installed without checking?