Your reasoning is an example of failing to understand the difference between a random variable and an exposure to a random variable.

Experts are almost always right when the outcome is irrelevant. Economists can accurately predict next year's GDP growth most of time, sure. Except that time they're all somehow wrong at the same time and it's a massive miss and we enter a recession. This is really the only time we care about them being right ("Housing can't be in a bubble").

Until economists are financially harmed or benefited in proportion to how bad or good their predictions are, they won't understand this idea either.