> To believe that tapping 128 bits of "entropy" from /dev/urandom is equivalent to "depleting" 128 bit of entropy from the "system entropy pool", you must also believe that encrypting 16 bytes with AES-CTR somehow materially weakens the key.
As long as none of the 128 bits of the plaintext is known, we're also adding 128 bits of unpredictability, so the net result is zero.
If some of the plaintext bits are known, in theory the unpredictability should decrease. For an extreme example: if all 128 bits of plaintext are known, and all 128 bits of ciphertext are also known, there should be a single 128 bit AES key that maps that input to that output, so the entropy left in the key would be zero.
However, there is no known way to find that single key other than through a brute force search through all the 2^128 keys, so it's still safe. That also applies to the CSPRNGs: even if the entropy has decreased to zero, as long as an attacker has to brute force through a large enough number of possible states to take advantage of that fact, it's safe. It doesn't change the fact that, when the entropy left is zero, there is a single state which could lead to the observed outputs.
Yes, this means that after the entropy in the CSPRNG has passed the point where brute force is no longer viable, the amount of entropy left on the pool becomes a useless measurement. What matters is how much work an attacker would have to do, not how much theoretical entropy is left.