I didn't draw the same conclusion from the article regarding whether the author thought, or the article implies, that "rolling the dice" is the primary element of success. The author emphasizes the sorts of elements you highlighted - formulating a long term and reasonable plan; demonstrable talent; grit and perseverance - not as necessary (or sufficient) conditions to success but rather necessary conditions to have a chance at success.

As you know more than most, game development isn't a linear path from ideation to release, and good games from smart people who worked hard on them often find little success. You can increase your chance at success with experience and talent, but games are an entertainment medium and sometimes your creation just doesn't resonate - or increasingly rise above the noise of the platform marketplaces - with enough people to be a sustainable career.

I've worked at AAA studios and am now at an independent game developer. I've sometimes thought of doing something even smaller, an indie effort akin to the author's or something of the scope of what you did with Braid. I found this article aspirational and affirming, validating the idea of taking a chance on something that is meaningful to you despite the (long in the case of the mobile app store) odds.