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Comment by failquicker | Hacker News Reader

Eventually, complacency and failure to innovate will probably kill off Facebook. I know it's hard to look at Facebook now and see the possibility that they will be much less relevant in 10 years. But that will probably happen.

Prodigy, CompuServe, AmericaOnline, Friendster, Myspace and to a certain extent even Yahoo and Microsoft. At one point in time they were all pervasive, disruptive, and dominant. And now they've either gone or are having to pivot into a niche to maintain viability at a fraction of their former glory.

The internet and technology will keep growing. Facebook will get marginalized at some point.

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I don't think 'Facebook will fail because other companies have failed' is the right answer.

Though "Facebook will fail because pretty much all companies fail eventually" is a reasonable one.

No-one, looking at Apple in 1998, could have correctly predicted what they would be like a decade down the road. It's not unreasonable to suppose that guesses at what the big companies in the industry will look like a decade from now will often be wildly incorrect, no matter how obvious things seem.

No, I stand by my statement. I don't believe that Facebook will continually dominate the hearts and minds of the online world in the way it does now, in perpetuity. My reason given for failure was "complacency and failure to inovate" which I believe is the downfall of most great companies. The companies that I listed were examples of this phenomenon. You can really take this theory all the way back to the Dutch east India trading company if you want to. Evolve or die. In all probability, someday facebook will stop evolving.

Now I'm currently refering to facebook failing in the same way that "Microsoft and Yahoo" have failed. They still exist, are still (quite) profitable, but their relavency is fading.

As to apple. I've always wondered if the magic there will continue after Steve Jobs dies.

As to apple. I've always wondered if the magic there will continue after Steve Jobs dies.

Apple did just fine while Jobs was on medical leave for six months or so.

Apple's secret to ongoing growth and success is introducing a major new product category every few years. Six months takes nothing out of that--the long term visionary work Steve Jobs does can be missed for six months without much impact. Six years and Apple would be in decline.

It will be a new product (killer app) that at first doesn't seem related per se, but that network will then able to use its scale to back into being the next facebook.

You may certainly be right, but I wouldn't bet on it: for all the services you mentioned, I always would have been surprised if a person I'd just met were on any one in particular. Now when I hear that somebody's not on Facebook (even (especially?) non-techies), that's what's surprising.

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