What I gathered from this conversation was to bet on the longer term success of tesla but leave their first few generation mass-produced models to the die hard fans
And it also assumes that skill in the (relatively) low volume production of rockets can be transferred to mass production of cars.
If Model 3 is not a success money runs out. There will be large changes in the ownership. Musk might sell Tesla to some other manufacturer etc.
Not sure if Musk will be actually making any decisions here when things go south.
The Semi is a huge market.
And even if Model 3 didn’t exist and Tesla pushed itself as developing Model S as the number one car for self driving mobility services, they’d still have a claim at the lions share of the automotive market. Vehicle cost is a much smaller concern in the post-self-driving world.
Let’s imagine Model 3 only pulls Model S numbers, and their annual production only goes to 200k by 2020. I don’t think that’s enough to see a total collapse of the stock the way you seem to be suggesting.
I think Elon has many more cards in play than you let on.
I have yet to see any financial analysis based on Tesla financial that don't see Model 3 as a critical.