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10k->ATH: ~ +100%

ATH->10k: ~ -50%

I think it's going to be very difficult/very long time to see ATH again

On the contrary I think we will see the ATH again soon. Apparently no one knows what's going to happen, but there's just too much people, money, hash power and ecosystem for this to go bust.

So "too big to fail" you mean?

I don't think we can call it at the moment. But one more bull run and 50 million more across the world will definitely get Bitcoin there.

There's a lot of venture money coming in and new hedge funds popping up.

After eyeing BTC charts for the past 6 months, there is virtually no price movement that would surprise me. $30k in a couple of months? Sure. $3k? Why not. However, I will believe the bull run is over only when I see it stay down for those couple of months.

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