> 1. This assumes that the way we build solar panels (or whatever) never changes.
Yeah but the Chinese basically took the European process, scaled it up and dumped the prices by using extremely low cost labor and massive state subsidies both at construction of the plants and at selling the product. There's no invention there, only the aim of totally destroying the competition. The only inventions happening are in research labs - and as there are no more notable fabs left in Europe or the US, that research will be applied in China. Our taxes basically funding our continued downfall...
> Of course, this assumes a level of competence, self-control, and foresight that may be missing in modern legislatures.
The only country which ever had this is Norway with its ultra massive oil fund. The Arabian countries are playing catch-up there with their recent investments but... well... building a fully air conditioned soccer stadium right in the midst of a hot desert isn't exactly a wise (or environment friendly) investment, much less a dozen of them. In addition, engaging in more-or-less pointless turf and proxy wars all over Arabia (and parts of Northern Africa too) are a totally unneeded drain on their resources.