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Comment by fendmark | Hacker News Reader

Not to be overly contrarian but it does seem that we are getting close to the peak for the craft beer industry.

Smuttynose Brewery going up for auction is a great example of this. https://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/18/smuttynose-brewing-in...

Many areas are getting over-saturated with microbreweries and there eventually won't be enough demand to sustain them.

In retail, $10+ average price for a six pack, the even more offensive 4 pack of beer for the same price or more.

It's great to see this growth engine for jobs, and I personally love the amount of variety and innovation we are seeing in craft beer, I just wonder how long it will last until people are onto the next trend or until the industry gets so greedy that they kill the golden goose.

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$10 (USD)? Luxury!

NZ craft beer six pack: $22.99 UK craft beer 6 pack: £14

You Americans complain too much, easily one of the cheapest countries to buy booze I've been to

My first and last experience in Canada was when I saw a 30 rack of Natty Light for $60 USD (and a bunch of Canadians driving over the border to fill massive reservoir tanks with gas). Really left a bad taste! :P

Alcohol taxes in Canada are set by province. In Quebec booze is very inexpensive. Were you in Ontario?

Beer is cheap in Quebec but wine is almost always more expensive than Ontario.

This was in Vancouver

Alcohol prices in Canada are sort of funny - the low end market is often massively inflated compared to the U.S., since the government (Ontario at least, I can't speak for the other provinces) sets minimum prices for alcohol - about $30 for a 24 pack of beer and about $10 for a bottle of wine.

As well, because (again, in Ontario) you have a single authority setting prices for all alcohol (beer and wine can in some cases be sold by private businesses, but the price is always controlled by the LCBO), prices are uniform across the province and you don't see the effect you see in the U.S. where rural areas have comparatively cheaper prices.

As a result, really cheap stuff is comparatively expensive but it levels out as the quality improves. I can get a 6 pack of Mill St, which is a higher quality but still mass produced beer (think maybe Goose Island) for $13 CAD / $10 USD, which isn't far off U.S. prices.

$60 for 30 Natty light is expensive though - remember that that's not a Canadian beer (I don't even think we can buy it in Ontario) - if you were buying Canadian or something like that you'd probably be closer to the $30 for 24 price.

I agree the movement is likely nearing saturation on total number of microbreweries. However, $10 +/- a few dollars, for a six pack, is not a problem. The mediocre old domestics cost $7 to $10 around most of the US. Paying more is perfectly fine for a superior tasting product. Product price scaling works that way in most consumer goods, it makes sense.

>The mediocre old domestics cost $7 to $10 around most of the US

No they don't, not even close. The beers you're referring to cost that for a _12_ pack. 6 packs are ~$5.50, and you can walk into a bar and get a draft old domestic for around $2.00. Wherever you're buying your e.g. Bud Light, it doesn't represent "most places".

you can walk into a bar and get a draft old domestic for around $2.00

Not in San Francisco.

Right, but MOST PLACES. Did you read what you were responding to?

...mediocre old domestics cost closer to $2. I can find that in Philadelphia, Ohio, NC, and even parts of NYC for less than $5.

Huh, we pay around 10-14 USD for a (single) nice beer here (Norway). Of course, the high taxes on alcohol makes it so that there is relatively little price difference between cheap and good beer, so this may actually be a good thing for the craft beer industry.

In Scotland a few of the micro-breweries are now experimenting with Gin and Whiskey. That could be the next stage as beer gets saturated. But there's also a long way to go with beer. Atm micro breweries are mostly making traditional flavorsome ales. There's a lot of room left for experimentation, particularly in the health aspect. If someone can make a tasty, full flavored, low cal beer they'd make a bomb.

What's nice with beer and gin is that there is short time from production start to market and getting paid. Other kinds of alcohol that needs storing for X years makes the startup barrier much larger.

Craft breweries are still small businesses and live and die by their business decisions. If you borrow millions to build a fancy new brewery/attraction, and then people don’t come, it doesn’t matter how good your beer is.

This seems so 2011. I get a 15-pack of my favorite beer for $15.99 at my local store. It's a little more expensive at Pubix, though ($17.99).

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