Because correlation != causation.
Here's a very simple refutation:
Is past arrest history a valid factor in the model?
What if past arrest history is biased due to biased policing (Hint: it is, well proven)
How about zip code?
Here's a very simple refutation:
Is past arrest history a valid factor in the model?
What if past arrest history is biased due to biased policing (Hint: it is, well proven)
How about zip code?
If you don't believe in using probability to determine risk. How about you hire a pedophile to babysit your kids? How about throwing down your retirement on lotto tickets? ETC.
Do you think biased policing causes people to commit crimes? How about not committing crimes to begin with? How about not hanging with troublemakers? You think it is impossible for people to avoid being arrested and convicted of crimes because of "biased policing"? Please think harder.