Google doesn’t necessarily need innovation
medium.com
medium.com
When Steve Yegge just moved to Google, his final posts were about encouraging his readers to work on Big Things like the cure for cancer instead of cat videos. And now his Big Thing is food delivery?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2811818
What a difference 2374 days makes. Really, though, Steve can go work for whoever he wants to, as long as he keeps blogging.
It's clear that the internet is signal boosting his opinions far more then they deserve to be.
I mean, I didn't think about it much before, but now that I have a child, the days of just throwing together random things from the fridge doesn't cut it, and ordering takeout is too expensive. It's either cook every few days or spend tons of money.
If the market starts giving me cheaper, healthier options than ordering pizza, then I'd consider it a huge quality of life improvement, not to mention a huge time saver.
Just making food cheaper is not an "enormous" benefit to society. For evidence of this see the dollar menu at McDonalds[1]. Food delivery has existed for years now in the US and EU. Please provide any evidence that these services have resulted in either cheaper or healthier food consumption.
And I don't know for sure that these new delivery services will result in cheaper and/or healthier foods. I'm guessing (and hoping) that, as per the article, relying on these new delivery "layers" will provide more options, and more options will translate to lower prices.
But either way, that doesn't matter. My disagreement with parent was only whether it's valuable to improve things like food delivery, and I pointed out that the food industry, in general, is incredibly important to most people's lives, so trying to improve it is a huge value to society.
People who are dying of hunger aren't dying because food is available 2 miles away from them and they can afford it but don't want to go get it.
If you are going to invoke Maslow's hierarchy, consider that getting food at the click of a button is WAAAAY high in the pyramid.
The question wasn't about food, but food delivery.
And for that matter, "Cancers Associated with Overweight and Obesity Make up 40 percent of Cancers Diagnosed in the United States", CDC 2017: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1003-vs-cancer-obes...
And look at this graph (my own work, for something I'm writing): https://imgur.com/KUyUwQy
(Does America have an opioid crisis, or a food crisis?)
Anything that gets more quality food availability to Americans, especially healthier cooked food delivered in lieu of microwaving a frozen processed thing, is an improvement to celebrate.
Someone who is working oddjobs from 9am-9pm and still barely making next month's rent payment would benefit both from having extra time, and hopefully their health would not suffer if they were eating decent food.
> It's easy to see that you can deliver to somebody and somebody's neighbor for approximately the same cost as delivering to just somebody,
And it's also easy to see if you have to deliver to one person on one side of the city and to another side right after it will be much more expensive. Not only do you have issues of food freshness (which means customer dissatisfaction) but also wear on a vehicle, insurance, gas, etc. To make up for it the cost of delivery will skyrocket-and thus people will not pay the premium.
Also-what about food locations? You're assuming that enough people in a very small radius will want to order the same food from the same place. That will almost never happen.
There is wear on a vehicle, insurance, gas, either way but potentially less with the delivery service than with everyone doing their own fetches.
Yes, I'm assuming there is enough density for there to be actual economies of scale. Yes, it's true that delivery/takeaway sacrifices freshness compared to eating at the kitchen. Yes, it's reasonable to be skeptical about whether any company can achieve the required density and whether the theoretical efficiencies will overcome the friction of employment taxes. Etc., etc. However, pizza delivery has been a very affordable luxury for decades and mail delivery has been obviously cheaper than hand-delivering your mail for centuries. So, I don't buy your claim that delivery services are inherently niche luxuries.
I didn't make that claim. I'm not arguing for or against the idea-but there are many problems with the model. It's not that easy-the costs don't make sense for the poor. There would be much greater impact for the poor to simply solve the food desert crisis than to have deliverable mcdonalds.
> There is wear on a vehicle, insurance, gas, either way but potentially less with the delivery service than with everyone doing their own fetches.
This is impossible to prove. At worst it's the same as the delivery model-if there is not enough density. And in places WITH enough density, there are food options within walking distance anyway. At best, people pick up food on the way to the store or back home. So there is very little loss to them as they are already driving and out.
> Yes, it's true that delivery/takeaway sacrifices freshness compared to eating at the kitchen.
That's not what I'm comparing it to. It's simply fresher for someone to pick up there own-the delivery driver has to make multiple stops first-so it's possible your food will be really cold/unfresh as opposed to picking it up yourself.
we are already seeing this with uber. It is very difficult to make good money with Uber after factoring in all costs.
Yes cheap, high-quality and healthy food would be beneficial.
There is however nothing inherently healthy about using an app so you don't have to walk further than your front door.
Do you really believe the barrier to people eating healthy is that there isn't an app for them to do so without leaving their couch?
b) There is no question that these taxi/delivery apps have reduced costs. Not to mention his vision for the future of food delivery has hardly been implemented.
Apps are merely being tacked on to existing business models. This isn't the world Steve's getting excited about... it's the first baby steps.
But once businesses are designed from the beginning with apps, decentralized delivery, automation, etc in mind - just as he mentioned his sister in law did with her Vietnamese food service (by just getting a commercial kitchen with no retail front-end besides the app).
Nor has the true power of Uber-style delivery/driving apps been close to being reached yet. There is tons of potential for change still to be done, which will further reduce costs.
c) Yegge himself said this goes beyond food/transport
> Here’s the thing, though: Transport and food are only scratching the surface. Same-day food delivery can be generalized to same-day anything delivery, for instance. We’re going to see major disruptors happening yearly (if not faster) for many years to come. Payments and financial services are up next, and they’re a staggeringly huge opportunity.
"Yegge" said it? OMG. The cult of Yegge! I am completely baffled by the swooning on HN over this guy. Wow, he worked at Google?! OMG. He wrote some blog entries 10 years ago?! OMG. What a giant!
That blogpost yesterday was so cringeworthy that he had to walk parts of it back today in another blog post, making him look even sillier. The content and claims were absurd and laughable. My first thought when I read it was "I bet this person has never been abroad before." I would ask anyone apologizing for him and his absurd claims would you be doing this for any other random person writing on medium.com whose name wasn't "Yegge."
This reminded me of the montage on season 1 where everybody talks about changing the world when presenting their apps/services...
The whole point of technology is to enable and lower the cost of things people want. It's hard to top food on the list of things people want.
This is food service delivery by web vs picking up the phone. It's hardly revolutionary.
Yes food is important, food delivery as a luxury service in large urban areas, not so much.
Turns out I can do that from my dumb-phone. I just have to talk to someone.
I don't think the Grab is innovative either, but it is just as innovative as the majority of popular things coming out of SV in the last decade. I think a lot of the skepticism has to do with it being in Asia, outside the reality distortion field of SV.
It's where the money is. Online food delivery is growing ridiculously and still have tons of room for growth since it is following the growth of smartphones and the rise of "online taxis". It isn't just food delivery. Grocery delivery, liquor delivery and all other delivery services haven't caught up to smartphone/online taxi service yet.
It's similar to what amazon did with their AWS. Most of their servers were idle. So why not turn that unused capacity for productive use. If you think about it, most taxis ( even online taxis ) are in idle state. So why not use that idle time for delivery.
Also slogans from large corporations or people working for multinationals are just PR nonsense. "Do no evil", "fair and balanced", "just do it", etc are marketing PR rubbish. Steve Yegge, like alphabet, is in the business of making money.
Cancer research is high risk/high reward. Food delivery is low risk/high reward.
That's not how AWS started, according to one of the principals.
https://www.networkworld.com/article/2891297/cloud-computing...
I know it's not why a lot of these companies get started. The average person doesn't need food delivery for any substantial value in their life. However, the average person being interested in these types of services make it better for everyone.
I've read that the biggest problem in B2C businesses in general is often distribution, so I think the idea is that if grab is successful, they'll boost southeast Asian entrepreneurship and collect a portion of all of that growth
So the "world" is the US? Because the rest doesn't have "network football games" or "food delivery" ads, and tons of countries have had perfectly thriving delivery businesses, even open 24/7.
This was several years ago, and grocery deliveries to my area. Carried a 50 to 60$ delivery surcharge. There are a growing number of food deserts. Delivery of take-out meals isn't that big to me. But delivery of good quality food, that's a bigger deal.
However you break into the market, holding everyone's money is a good business to be in.
The Soylent founder had this idea of 'deprecating kitchens' and while I'm not a huge fan of soylent I really liked the idea. We really don't all need kitchens - it's a huge waste of space and everyone cooking for themselves generates a lot inefficiency and food waste. It makes a lot of sense to get your food from local communal kitchens - which is what much of the world does - but there also needs to be a bit of a culture shift around 'food as religion'. It's become a source of virtue signaling and everyone has such specialized food requirements it makes it difficult to economically scale. Right now food delivery is a luxury product but I'm not sure has to be.
Maple tried this in New York City. They had delicious, healthy, locally sourced food and more or less replaced my lunch orders while at work (they were not available in my outer borough).
They couldn't hack it, though - the margins weren't high enough and they ended up selling to some UK company and dismantling their New York operation.
I work at Fitbit and I'm very glad that cookie licking is not prevalent here.
I'm gonna preach it until I try it or die and figure out it doesn't work, but my genuine belief is these companies are too big to effectively function or to counter threats. If your company population is a small town, how many middle managers do you have? Tens of thousands?
Edit: by "their own companies" I mean all of their subsidiaries.
This because Sony both produced media devices with a record/copy capability, and content.
Clearly size has benefits that compensate for some of the undeniable downsides. It's almost a tautology.
Also, look at the great organisational and cultural variety among big companies. Size is not the only thing that defines organisational complexity and effectiveness.
If you decide that identity (user management, directory services or whatever broad feature) is a core service and put a group in ownership of that then every other team may end up with a dependency on that group. Initially, pooling resources seems like a good idea, but it becomes the critical path and they end up taking more and more incongruent feature requests as the rest of the organization grows.
Eventually identity are a bottleneck, but are challenged with feature request brokering between other teams. Relative to other groups in the org identity becomes this monster team and you are left wondering if it should really be one group, or include leadership from other parts of your organization to ensure it can account for all requests and more effectively broker.
It occurs when there are two teams that have a common need and one of the teams has deep knowledge of the space and maybe has a working POC but is too busy with other work to do anything. The cookie is licked at that point unless the culture is that the team with the POC will freely give up their work to another team. Its not human nature to do that though.
- I want to do X
- But we're responsible for X
- When can you do it?
- We're understafed, so years from now
- Fine I'll do it for you, I need it now
- You don't have the proper permissions
Basically when some mid-level manager holds a feature hostage so they can grow their little fifedom, essentially trying to promote themselves by growing the org chart underneath them.
When the opportunity for more resources is on the table for X, no one is available to work on X. When they're looking to cut head count, everyone is working on X. Where X is some poorly defined but essential feature.
What you describe kind of suggests upholding strict divisions per team like that is one of the main causes of the problem.
Wouldn't being more flexible of temporarily joining another team as a guest work? I imagine that for a number of situations this could work:
- I want to do x, my team needs it
- But we're responsible for X, and x falls under that
- When can you do it?
- We're understaffed, so years from now
- Fine I'll do it for you, I need it now
- Didn't you hear we are responsible for X? If x is not done right we are the ones who get in trouble for that.
- So make me a temporary guest member of your group, vet my work to make sure it's ok, and share the credit for x.
- Ok, that actually sounds like a good return on investment for us, welcome to the team!
I mean in theory Google's 20% time allows for this, but all traces of that (like the calendar and gmail labs) have systematically vanished from their products. And that happened years ago, it's not like that was yesterday.
They will actually fight having an "export to google sheets" feature, because it would cost them a lot of headcount.
And of course, demanding that managers learn a bit of basic (and I do mean basic) programming ("querying" would be a more apt description) to, for instance, do SQL queries on the database so they'd include those statistical measures ... that's just so out of the question it's not funny. There seems to be this need for managers to be the dumbest, most idiotic (but agreeable) people that just do whatever their boss asks of them, mostly by subtly threatening whoever is below them. "Good" companies leave 1 level above the rank and file that actually gets promoted from the rank and file to prevent the worst of the inevitable backlash. And yes, Facebook also definitely works like this, from what I've seen during an extended interview.
I can think of 10 examples of this I've seen where I work in the last year.
If X is big, say, "build a new data mart (over the next 6 months)," then your considerations are very relevant. That should have a plan and buy-in from all of the relevant stakeholders; it's a legitimate project and needs the organizational ceremony involved in such.
If X is small, say, "make this internal API return an additional integer field from a datastore it's already using," then that sounds like bureaucracy and politics needlessly impeding development. This is a minor enhancement.
I guess the trouble is that even a small change like my example could be substantial in a large enough organization. Maybe adding the integer field means a new version of the API has to be published, or maybe adding the integer field means DB indexes or caching strategies have to be updated. Even so, the API team should have established processes for solving these issues. So instead of a simple change taking a few hours, it takes a few days, still not a huge divergence of resources.
From the parent using the example "Fine I'll do it for you, I need it now," I'm assuming they're talking about very small scope problems, which would not substantially affect the schedule for Y.
And remember, Y is already being affected, because it requires X to get completed.
So it's not really a matter of working on X when you should be working on Y; it's that progress on Y has halted due to a missing X dependency. What can we do to get Y moving forward again?
At the ground level engineers are frustrated because if they could just get "those idiots" to do the one thing they needed they could make progress. Without ever realizing that they were the "those idiots" in someone else's dependency tree.
If you are a senior technical leader (or want to be one) it is always worthwhile to follow these threads to figure out what is going on, even though it might seem like a distraction. The larger the organization the more challenging this can be but most people will tell you what they are working on and why its important (which is to say what will be fixed/improved/made possible by its delivery)
- Fine, I did it for you in my 20% time. Will you review the code?
- Sure, thanks! And here's a nice peer bonus too.
But maybe that's a thing of the past? It's been many years since I worked there.
It's just that nobody WANTS to do that work :-( Usually because, rightly or wrongly, they feel they won't be rewarded for that work. Or because they don't have the expertise to work on it, or the patience to attain it.
Yegge is pointing this out, and I agree with him (although I honestly I didn't find the pitch for his new company to be particularly compelling.)
I've observed discussions with people citing it becomes particularly pathological when DRY is employed by Enterprise Architects. From my experience I tend to agree with that statement. I think RFC's (SHOULD, MUST, NOT, etc) with a reference implementation are a much better approach. If you want to move quickly use the reference. If it doesn't fit your use-case for whatever reason, document why you're branching out and get on with it. Obviously this approach poses an issue where documentation diverges from reality but ideally writing it down first will help clarify the objectives. Ideally the ABI/API for anything that's shared wouldn't be changing that much so maintaining the document shouldn't be too erroneous. If it is it might be an indicator to encourage duplication.
Pieter Hintjens RFC's for ZeroMQ is a great example of what I mean;
The GraphQL spec is pretty good too;
http://facebook.github.io/graphql/October2016/
Yes all of these things take time to write up but if you're going to constrain someone by saying "use this and under no condition nothing else" then it should be well documented.
Managed by an ex-MSer, and wormed its way into every damn part of Google for a time.
After he left Google, i swear someone in the company management accused him of being a "cookie-licker" in an interview.
Seriously, the kid dumps a bunch of snacks out and “marks” them all for herself, later.
That term was immediately grokked when he said it :-)
The problem with "innovation" is it's actually kinda hard to define and somewhat subjective. Steve goes into this.
I'm not sure I entirely agree about his point about Google making competitors though. I actually think that's worse than it used to be. The height of it was Google Offers (anyone remember that?) that was a response to Groupon, allegedly when buyout talks failed (I have no inside knowledge of this; just what I read here and elsewhere).
To echo Steve's point, I do kinda wonder if there are too many engineers at Google now. Or, more accurately, more than is required for what they do to do. The problem with that is they'll find work for themselves to do, good idea or not, part of a coherent strategy or not.
Generally speaking (rather than Google specifically), the danger with this kind of situation with large companies is decisions tend to then become political rather than merit-based and also you tend to end up in situations of endless internal reorgs, which seems to be a defense mechanism by middle management (in that a given org structure can't succeed or, more importantly, fail if it's never given long enough before the next reorg).
Disclaimer: Xoogler.
Isn't that exactly how Gmail came to be?
You might be interested in Andrew Norman Wilson's take on Google's Culture: Workers Leaving the Googleplex from 2011. It's been discussed here before[0][1].
I first saw this as a live performance, which was 30 minutes with a lot more social commentary. In that performance he compared the strange cultural division within Google to the Alpha/Beta/Gamma/Delta/Epsilon division of society in Brave New World[2]. Your comment reminded me of that, but I don't know if this recording includes it.
[0] http://www.andrewnormanwilson.com/WorkersGoogleplex.html
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2500082
[2] https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090605154008A...
In fact, I think I'm going to start flagging comments that complain about it as inducing flame wars because that's pretty much what it becomes.
The result of this is multiple messaging apps, multiple framework, etc...
Also, Uber was out of China more because of the biased policies in China,not because they were not competitive enough. Their exit was also profitable, so to say they were defeated doesn't make sense.
This post is a hiring piece for Grab.
------------
Google Search Adsense Google Analytics AdWords Google Docs, Sheets, Slides, etc. Google Calendar Gmail Google Maps Google Earth Google StreetView Google Translate Google Chrome Kubernetes AlphaGo Spanner TensorFlow AI Self driving cars Go (programming language) reCaptcha Firebase
Special projects (not making money from it, purely to make the web/world a better place):
------------
Project Zero Google Fonts Google Crisis Response
Acquisitions:
------------
YouTube Android Waze (and now Waze Carpool)
Excellent clones (where I consider it better than competition):
------------
Nexus and Pixel phones Google Home Google Cloud Engine Google Drive Google Photos Google Play Movies/Music/etc.
So yeah... I think Google is not any less innovative than they have ever been... I mean Google literally changed the web, from search, to mail to maps to everything. They are not doing anything different today than they did 15 years ago. Just in recent years they released things like Go, Spanner, Kubernetes, etc.
If they wouldn't have such a huge portfolio of so many other products then just these 3 products alone would be proof enough of how innovative they are.
No one can really say what the right balance is between world-beating innovation and soul-destroying bureaucracy, but it's easier to blog about then execute in a company with 72,000 employees.
But I appreciated the essay, and from an employee POV it's much more satisfying to ship new products than sit in meetings for 6 months talking about process and budget codes.
https://austingwalters.com/is-search-solved/
In which, I actually discuss the fact I think Google is not going anywhere, but... I do think their search algorithms are starting to breakdown.
However, it really doesn't matter. They have the market share, the money, and more importantely, the best search query parser (for the moment). Even if their searches do get worse and worse, people aren't going to jump ship.
So I fully agree, "Google doesn't need innovation", they simply need to keep users happy - which IMO they are doing well enough (although we've started to see cracks).
Simple query like "pizza near me" shows awful results. Places that are 10+ miles away. I live in a big city. There's hundreds of pizza places closer to me than the ones it shows.
Movies -- doesn't show listings close to me like google.
No sports scores, like Google.
etc etc. I applaud their efforts, but it's got a long way to go to be anywhere even near Google in terms of utility.
I find it interesting that "cookie licking" is terrible from the inside, though whenever there are overlapping products from Google customers complain. What's the best way to let the wild ones innovate without confusing the overall product lineup?
i can't believe it's been 13 years since he joined google. I still remember reading that he joined google and it doesn't seem like that long ago. i guess it's because he hasn't written quite as much in the last decade.
I already skip search if I think Amazon's Alexa can answer the question.
[UPDATE]
Not sure why I'm getting downvoted. I'm not saying anything that isn't already being discussed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/amazon-is-threatening-google...
I use it almost exclusively for smart home control.
"Alexa, how old was Ronald Reagan when he became President?"
It seems to know about movies and people.
I hear that Google Home is a lot smarter. I'll get one when it goes on sale again.
Siri is the assistant with the problem. It can't answer those questions:
"Hey Siri, who won best actor last year?"
"Hey Siri, how old was Ronald Reagan when he became President?"
Grab is a startup in a foreign country far away from silicon valley, everything seems exciting, different and ground breaking when in reality it's not. They are just cloning Uber in their own region, perhaps even with the hope to be bought up by someone like Uber one day.
I have been to South East Asia many times, actually I've been to all countries in South East Asia and many islands and I'm going to Asia for another 5 months this year and apart from the normal cultural differences which you have there's not much difference to Uber (or a clone) there than anywhere else. I think he should chill out for a bit and first experience it for at least a year before claiming any groundbreaking wisdom he thinks he got from visiting this part of the world for the first time in his life probably.
>Google’s Cloud Spanner, BigQuery, TensorFlow, Waymo and a few others
yup a few exceptions... I think we can safely end this discussion now.
For example I really don’t find their designs to be particularly no-nonsense.
I would actually prefer a more no-nonsense, absolutely minimally styled html. Like under 10 lines of css.
Because I really like contrast, really really don’t care for a position sticky element right where my eyes naturally scan on mobile obscuring stuff, am fine with Open Sans, don’t need the extra page load time spent on who knows what. If there is a dial between form and function I would like to jam that dial to 100% function. Other people with vision issues really need large text formatted as white in black. Others still much prefer the aethestics of font other than Open Sans.
It would be nice if somehow we could define precisely how we wanted our reading material formatted across all our devices and across all the varied ways we receive textual information. (Eg it would work with kindle, or in the growing number of electron apps, as well as in all the other software we use).
And then sites just had to provide a minimal use of semantic html elements to make it work.
So while medium does cleanup the box of chocolates mess of going to random blogs it turns all those chocolates into the one with the same minty flavor and some folks really don’t care for mint chocolates.
So when they see a random blog post to them it’s a box of chocolates where they have a shot of winning, with medium it guaranteed to be something they don’t care for.
Case in point I read another recent post don Stevie’s in my rss reader and that was pretty nice. Not sure if that will still be option (or for how long) now that he’s moving to medium.
EDIT: There is some dystopian movie (whose title I forgot) where only one restaurant chain exists -- same thing.
Let's call it a sidestep.
Waymo appears to be on track to a business?
Are you suggesting that, with tensorflow, innovation doesn't count if its infrastructural and not consumer-facing?
Google+: Fail. Allo? LOL! (Let's talk about Duo, Hangouts Meet, Helpouts, etc.) The third or fourth rebranding of Google Wallet? Okay. Inbox caused an internal riot at Google when they tried to replace Gmail with it. Currents? Newsstand?
At the end of the day, almost all profit at Google still comes from ads, and all of their success comes from abusing monopolies they developed ten years ago, like Search, Android, and Chrome.
You guys are Oracle. With a brighter colored logo.
----
Waymo is built on hype, not substance, it only works in limited areas which are excrutiatingly mapped in advance, and most of the marketing videos showed capability that predated the cars actually being so capable: They're staged. I suspect actual car manufacturers will far surpass Google's own offerings here, they have experience and they get how to make a consumer product that lasts more than three years without needing to be replaced.
Note that if you have a pro-Google bias, it's pretty easy to dismiss legitimate points as "anti-Google bias". Unless you're going to characterize a 13-year-veteran Googler like Yegge as "anti-Google", maybe you should realize the bias is yours.
[0] https://www.popsci.com/google-has-7-products-with-1-billion-...
A success by pretty much any metric (no seriously). Yes, its essentially facetime, but I don't really think that matters. It still was the right decision. (and don't get me wrong I have some issues with Google's messaging strategy, but Duo isn't reasonably one of them).
>Inbox
I must have missed that?
Also, you kinda glossed over the whole infrastructure thing. Is infrastructural innovation not innovation?
>At the end of the day, almost all profit at Google still comes from ads,
Sure, but a quick check says that Google's revenue from not-ads today is about the same as Google's total revenue when they released android.
>and most of the marketing videos showed capability that predated the cars actually being so capable
So is your argument that Google isn't the innovator in the space, or that they won't be successful? Because I think both of those are totally wrong, but I want to clarify.
And in both cases, who do you think the innovators were, and who do you think will instead be successful?
>They're staged.
I, don't have words, this is just denial of reality. Tesla staged and inflated its autonomy. Waymo (and, to be clear, other companies, like Cruise) haven't. I see their vehicles driving around every day.
The data on this is pretty compelling: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen... (waymo: 600K miles, Cruise ~10K, everyone else: <1K)
Waymo is also active in the most areas (Bay Area, Tahoe, Phoenix, Kirkland, now Atlanta apparently).
I'm curious what leads you to believe that Waymo is somehow not innovative and not successful. Who on earth is doing better?
Months after Urmson was bragging about Waymo's ability to interpret hand signals, a Google engineer confirmed to a Slate reported that your cars would run a stoplight if Google's maps didn't already tell it the stoplight was there, and to look for it. And of course, that Waymo cars could not function on a road that wasn't excrutiatingly mapped to centimeter detail in advance.
While Google's marketing their upcoming launch of Waymo as a service being "fully autonomous", the car has to be remote controlled by a contractor when it gets confused.
Google likes to brag, like you did, about the "X number of miles", while intentionally ignoring real statistics that matter. (Driving the same mile over and over can be thousands of miles, but gains you really no understanding of the world of driving. Circling Mountain View isn't really as valuable as you'd believe.)
Contiguous miles without failure is a super interesting statistic for driving capability, but Google would not like to advertise that it fails and needs human help as often as one currently fills up on gas. That sort of statistic has usually showed up in the DMV reports while Google hasn't talked about it much. Hilariously, they're launching their service in Arizona where they don't have to disclose those statistics. When "no accountability" is what leads to the location choice for a product launch, you have to ask what they have to hide.
There's a huge discrepancy in the practical reality of what the technology has been capable of and what Waymo has claimed it can do. It's been so repetitively dishonest, I don't think I could ever trust the company or the cars based on their behavior alone.
>the car has to be remote controlled by a contractor
For legal compliance.
I'll repeat the question you avoided: if Waymo isn't an innovator or a leader in this space, what companies are, and what are they doing to demonstrate their superiority?
Your argument appears to be tautological. Google is not innovative, therefore nothing Google is doing can be innovative. If Google appears to be doing something that is innovative, someone else is doing it better or Google is lying.
No evidence can convince you of the contrary, because that evidence is simply Google using its immense power to mislead you or the person you're talking to.
"Google announced that, starting December 1, 2016, Google Duo replaced Hangouts within the suite of Google apps Android phone makers must pre-install on devices"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Duo
[1] Yes, illegally. Russia has already outlawed this behavior and fined them for it, the EU is expected to levy a fine against Google for it that makes their previous record-breaking fine look small, and it's a blatant violation of US antitrust law, where Google has paid a significant number of politicians to avoid being sued for it.
It has more than one million five star reviews, so yes.
By the way, while I'd say Google has been definitively abusing its control of the market with Android, I don't think Duo is a good example; I expect a phone to come with a way to make calls, and nowadays I'd include video calls too. Rather than preventing Duo from being preinstalled, the EU should force the industry to come up with a decent open video call protocol.
Both you and Yegge label things you like as "innovative" and dismiss others as "not innovative" while never clearly articulating what this means.
"cool but not R&D businesses"
Yegge complains that Android was not an innovation but then says "Jeff Bezos is an exception. He innovates all the time, and he doesn’t fear failure. Many of his innovation attempts fall flat, but he almost never throws the idea away."
So somehow Android isn't innovation but Fire tablets are. Seems inconsistent.
I can't help but wonder if Google should split itself into many smaller companies -- effectively, having offspring.
And I don't mean housing different business units into different legal entities, each with its own team. Google has already done that, in the form of Alphabet. I mean splitting each business unit into multiple equal-sized competing businesses. Imagine multiple smaller companies offering Google Drive, fighting each other for customers, improving the service in different ways over time, each with a different brand.
Perhaps corporate death and giving birth is the only way to avoid this kind of stagnation.
I realize this is a possibly controversial, non-orthodox idea. I'm only wondering.
If you haven't read about Google's myriad competing voice and chat applications and services, I have bad news...
Who manages the hardware and infra in this situation? Do all of these systems continue using the Google account you have with their tools running in Google's datacenters? Or do you now have 10 datacenters with 10 identity management tools and 10 different backend storage solutions that all need to be globally distributed and managed by teams of 5 or 10x as many total SREs to maintain the same level up uptime guarantee?
All good questions.
Without doing a lot (a lot!) of work, I don't know what the "right" answers are for them.
The motivating question for proposing this crazy idea is: would it result in less bureaucracy, less paralysis, less stagnation, more innovation?
I don't know the answer to my motivating question either, but I'm wondering...