The Year Climate Change Began to Spin Out of Control
technologyreview.com
technologyreview.com
The costs have increased because the southern coastal areas are vastly more populated than they were in earlier times.
Disagree?
Here's the data:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurrican...
Plot it yourself.
You've made an assertion, but you haven't supported it.
It's not like the models say the US went from "3 bad hurricanes a year" to "4 bad hurricanes a year."
They say what was a pretty terrible hurricane in 2017 would have been a lesser storm in <2017 (due to sea levels and water temperature).
The frequency of hurricanes v. time and the intensity of hurricanes v. time.
I would have thought that was obvious.
>You've made an assertion, but you haven't supported it.
First off, I'm not the one "making the assertion". The burden of proof lies on those who are claiming that the frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes is increasing over time.
Secondly, sure I have. I've provided a link to actual hurricane data that demonstrates it conclusively. Given that data, can you produce a plot using any generally accepted method that shows an increase in the frequency or intensity?
Hint: No, you can't. Because no such relationship exists.
> They say what was a pretty terrible hurricane in 2017 would have been a lesser storm in <2017 (due to sea levels and water temperature).
That's your counter-argument? "They say"?
Okay.
P.S. what do you think is the approximate value for "sea level rise", say, in the last 100 years?
> The frequency of hurricanes v. time and the intensity of hurricanes v. time.
Ah. Okay. Thanks for clarifying your metrics.
I'll refer you to the NOAA page for hurricane / climate studies, which answers all your points.
Which gives the source: "Chronological List of All Hurricanes which Affected the Continental United States: 1851-2012". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
> I'll refer you to the NOAA page for hurricane / climate studies, which answers all your points.
No, actually, it doesn't.
"It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity."
"Premature to conclude" is a euphemistic way of saying "we have no evidence".
"Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC mid-range scenario)."
Your page says that it "likely" (how likely? They don't say.) will cause them to be 2-11% more intense by the end of the 21st century (not now).
It also says "That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable"
Those are vague claims that are not falsifiable (in other words, they are not science). Could there be "undetectable" changes? Sure. Could the whole thing be controlled by angry mythological dwarves? Or excited unicorns? Sure. But those hypotheses are not science.
What I said was that there is no evidence that the frequency or intensity of hurricanes has increased. And there is no such evidence. Sorry.