It may bounce tomorrow, but over the next few 12 month, it will be a rough grind down to 18,000.

Good lord, what is it with HN downvoting. It's my opinion. I'm putting money where my mouth is based on my equity:cash position.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=%5EDJI

It's easy to fall into the trap of short-term view. Go to the above chart and click 1 day, 5 day, month, YTD, 1 year, 5 year, Max in sequence.

Lesson learned for me is, don't bet against the market, but when cycle turns, it can take months or years to play out.