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Comment by dpark | Hacker News Reader

I doubt the US would actually go to war with China for an invasion of Taiwan. We happily gave Taiwan’s UN seat to China to establish relations and no longer have official relations with Taiwan at all. I don’t think we’d sacrifice the relationship with our largest trading partner over Taiwan. Nor do I think our politicians would sign up for a war against China except in the face of an existential threat.

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I doubt the US would not actually go to war with China over an invasion of Taiwan. At the very least, there would be huge consequences in the very quick remilitarization of Japan and the start of a new cold war.

Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine?

An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.

I don't think that the two are really that comparable. The US is much better equipped to help thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion would be very far from an easy operation or even a sure win. And even ignoring America's historical support of Taiwan against China, if China were to successfully invade Taiwan, it would change the security situation of the area to such a degree that even military brass would be vary wary to not take a stand.

> Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.

I'm not sure why you think this is the case. If the US were to try to invade China, then yeah it would basically be unwinnable. But why would the US do that? They would only be trying to contain them. If they could help thwart and invasion and then shutdown the Chinese navy, then they would basically already have won by any reasonable measure.

You understand you are talking about two major nuclear powers, don't you?

Not comparable at all. Protecting Taiwan has been a foundational element of American foreign policy. A Chinese invasion would signal to the world a huge shift in power and would effectively be the end of US dominance over the world stage.

The only chance that would trigger China invading Taiwan is that it declares to be an fully independent country, in which case China will probably do so at any cost, even if it means full scale war with U.S. Will U.S. be ready for that?

It would be a shift, not an end. The world is essentially dividing itself up into the three regions described in 1984, to an almost eerie extent. The US will maintain its own power base through increased control over North and South America.

Taiwan and Ukraine are very different.

The U.S. doesn't have much history promising Ukraine defense as it was part of the U.S.S.R. during the Cold War. In contrast, Taiwan was practically there since 1949.

Taiwan's economy is multiple times the size of Ukraine's and is comparable to the likes of Saudi Arabia. To not defend Taiwan would send a very bad signal to all American allies that unless you're worth more than Taiwan, we'll sell you out. Assuming China continues to grow more powerful, this also means South Korea would be in danger as well. This is not even accounting the fact that if China controls Taiwan, China will control a majority of sea lanes to Korea and Japan. If she wished then she could interfere with oil supplies to those countries.

Plus the U.S. already goes great lengths to restrict China from acquiring U.S. technology, much of which has supply lines and partners in Taiwan. Letting China take Taiwan would mean a massive change unless you think we'll just accept that every Taiwanese company now will be forced to put backdoors for the Chinese.

> Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine?

I know you're joking, but ...

it was a cyber war, and it's still happening :)

I don't even think the US would go to war with China over an invasion of Japan.

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