I don’t think anyone is saying blockchain tech is “tulip bulbs”. The concern is Bitcoin (an instance of blockchain tech), et al., are not all the proponents claim them to be.
I’m convinced the blockchain is here to stay. Bitcoin? Not so much.
I’m convinced the blockchain is here to stay. Bitcoin? Not so much.
The blockchain, on the other hand, I think is more like XML/XSLT: a really interesting technology that has almost no real-world use that couldn't be done more easily with some other technology. And that 15-20 years after its popularity will be similarly obscure.
I've been looking for years, but, digital speculative pseudo-commodities aside, I still have not found an in-production, value-delivering use of blockchain technology that couldn't be done as well or better with some more well understood technology.
But for those who don't know the history, the vision was that XML would be this amazing interchange technology, and XSLT would be used to transform the XML as needed between and within apps, without needing real programmers.
For example, I know of one top-10 website circa 2004 that had their Java programmers producing only XML output. Then, XSLT specialists would transform that into HTML for rendering.
In theory, this provided a clear separation between back-end and front-end programmers. In practice, it was a giant clusterfuck, because any real work required coordinated changes at multiple levels. Although in theory the front-end work was independent, the reality was absurdly convoluted XSLT trying to turn not-very-good XML into something that rendered well on screen. Nobody sensible does this today.
At the time, XML/XSLT was expected to be central to a new, better way of making software. But now it's a weird niche thing, because although it was technologically cool, it was not actually better for 99% of use cases.
However I have seen one neat use in a previous job. We we dealing with a crappy API from a vendor. Crappy because it was a weird XML format, partially specified by a DTD but did unexpected things.
So we created an XSLT for the XML returned by their API. .NET allows you to generate classes from XSLT, so now we had a handy way to parse the data and process it. If we made any mistakes in the XSLT, just fix and regenerate the code. If the build breaks fix up any issues. The strong typing end to end meant we knew we had most of the cases covered.
FWIW, there was a time when many people (embarrassingly, even myself) who thought that XML was a good way to represent data in a language agnostic way (these days, JSON fills that void -- there are even people trying to recreate SOAP and CORBA with JSON ;-) ). I won't go into the details of that, but even now I can probably make a pretty convincing argument that it's a good idea (which is why people are trying to recreate SOAP and CORBA with JSON ;-) ). But the point is that once you have data in XML, it's kind of a PITA to parse it (well, JSON is slightly better off there). If I just want a subset of the data, or I want to take bits of it and insert it into a different XML data set it's quite a lot of code to write. XSLT was for that.
But where we agree is that XML is not a great way to represent data (and, jokes aside, while JSON is much better it's also being overused). So without XML, there is no need for XSLT. But given that HTML can often be parsed as XML, it's still really useful for its intended purpose: to extract and transform data.
I wouldn’t confuse that with rejection of the blockchain tech, just the cynical implementations that have mostly emerged.