Gerald Weinberg has several books on the topic [0, 1]. Dorner [2] has a short, sharp, thoughtful book on our biases in analyzing complex systems.

[0] 'An Introduction to General Systems Thinking', Gerald Weinberg [1] 'General Principles of Systems Design', Gerald Weinberg [2] 'The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations', Dietrich Dorner