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doesn't necessarily make her a good bet as an entrepreneur, however amazingly talented she might be.Yes, yes it does make her a good bet. If you are betting, bet on people with immense talent and drive.
Who else are you going to bet on, people with far less talent and drive? I think you're confusing "good bet" with "guaranteed to be more successful".
> No selection process is perfect
Yes, but there's a huge gulf between "almost perfect" and "woefully inadequate" when it comes to not being perfect. YC is closer to the latter just due to the lack of time they spend on the process.
> and one data point does not a trend make.
Correct -- but it's one more data point. There are multiple others from reports here. For example, YC not looking at demos; or asking questions that indicate they didn't bother to read or understand the application. Plus when you see some of the schlock they've funded it's clear something's broken.