You’re not wrong; it’s at least a close call.
You’re right that they’ve gotten less scrutiny, but they also need less scrutiny. (I’m not saying more isn’t better.) TLS carries a lot baggage from phlogiston era crypto and is significantly more complex than a dumb NOISE impl.
Note that I qualified my suggestion to “you need to have someone around for that” and that I also mentioned low cost. Specifically, I imagine you’d instantiate NOISE with some boring primitives, ideally in a memory safe language, and spend some time and money pointing Tamarin at it, for example. If you don’t have that, fine, get a tiny TLS stack. I’m just saying that a priori I can’t tell you I have less faith in random mbedTLS-containing ROM vs NOISE-with-reasonable-implementor. (I appreciate that we’re comparing apples to oranges with a concrete ROM vs an abstract protocol.) I also happily appreciate that we’re in territory where the constraints are too restrictive to make blanket recommendations.
Let me rephrase: would you agree that there are platforms that actually shipped with garbage crypto where it’s plausible that they could’ve made NOISE work but didn’t embed a TLS stack because size/perf?