Makes me wonder how this gets resolved without jumping through the gap to 'perfect' autopilot.
Makes me wonder how this gets resolved without jumping through the gap to 'perfect' autopilot.
> To put it briefly, automation has made it more and more unlikely that ordinary airline pilots will ever have to face a raw crisis in flight—but also more and more unlikely that they will be able to cope with such a crisis if one arises.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-... (linked to from another HN post today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16757343 )
Tesla is just handing it out to anyone who can afford to buy a Model S/X (and now Model 3) with the absolute minimum of warnings that they can get away with.
And also the idea that an automatic driver is easier to improve over time (skewing the trade-off better and better) than human drivers. Which of course will snowball when reliance on automation keeps making drivers worse than better, and at some point you're past the point of no return.
Whether that's right data must show.
From the videos in the article it's clear that auto-pilot should be disabled when there is bright low-light sunshine. Tesla should be prepared to tell customers there's certain times of the day when the reliability of the software is not high enough and turn it off.
These are all 'beta' testers after all so they shouldn't complain too much.
Imho, they should detect that situation (by using cameras and/or the current time + GPS) and not allow you to switch it on. You should not give drivers the choice between safety and lazy (from which I assume that auto-pilot driving when currently feasible it SAFER than manual -- which I assumes, but read elsewhere in the thread is not yet properly demonstrated).
Any statistics released by Tesla should be compared against similar statistics from say modern Audis with lane-assist and collision detection.
This could happen because Tesla vehicles are more expensive than comparable conventional vehicles, less attractive to those with risky lifestyles, inconvenient for people who don't have regular driving patterns that allow charging to be planned, or more attractive to older consumers who wish to signal different markers of status than the young go-fast crowd.
You'd possibly want to compare versus non-auto-pilot Tesla drivers on the same roads in similar conditions, but the problem remains that the situations where auto-pilot is engaged may be different from those when the driver maintains control.
In sum, it's hard to mitigate the potential confounding variables.
Yes - that's why I suggest comparing it to modern Audi drivers. Basically any of the BMW/Mercedes/Audi drivers are where Tesla is getting most of its customers. Those companies all have similar albeit less extensive safety systems.
They're brilliant because they augment humans by leaving humans to do all the driving and staying focused on that but then taking over when the driver gets distracted and is about to hit something.
Auto-pilot does it the opposite way round. It does the driving but not as well as the human but then the human can't stay as alert as the car so isn't ready to take over.
I really hope it does get to the point were all drivers are automatic and interconnected. Cars could cooperate to a much higher extent and traffic could potentially be much more efficient and safe.
Say, like computers on the Internet (information highway)?
Rings a bell.
Use it just for additional input to err on the side of safety. If the car ahead says "hey, I'm braking at maximum" and my car's sensors show it's starting to slow down, I can apply more immediate braking power than if I'd just detected the initial slight slowdown.
Or, "I'm a car, don't hit me!" pings might help where my car thinks it's a radar artifact, like the Tesla crash last year where it hit the semi crossing the highway.
You realize you say that in a thread about a car's sensors failing to understand it was in an unsafe condition (again), right?
We're discussing car-to-car mesh networks being used to provide self-driving cars with more decision-making input.
In other words, "all other road users should accommodate my needs just to make life a bit easier for me" is a terrible idea.
Having cars communicate information to each other has the potential to be an additional safety measure. It's like adding reflectors to bikes - adding them wasn't victim blaming, it was just an additional thing that could be added to reduce accidents.
I think you can make some conclusions from the current software industry and see how many defects are deployed daily, I see Tesla and Uber have same defects as any SV startup and not as NASA, having this starups controlling all the cars on the road sounds a terrible idea.
I think the question of using self driving vehicles comes down to this. Do you want to be part of a statistics that you can control, or do you want to be part of one that you cannot?
When we go in trains or planes, we are already being part of statistics that we cannot control. But those things also are extremely reliable.
So there seems to be a threshold, where someone should opt for being part of a statistics that you cannot control.
The people who are pushing SDV's, by some sleight of hand, seem to hide this aspect, and have successfully showcased raw, (projected) statistics that implicitly assumes the rate of progress with SDV's, also assume that SDV ll continue to progress until they reach that capability.....
>And also the idea that an automatic driver is easier to improve over time (skewing the trade-off better and better) than human drivers.
But there is always are risk of catastrophic regressions [1] with each update, right?
well, even if you are in control with your hands on the wheel, you can still get heart (and even die) in a car accident where you have no responsibility at all. Sure you can control your car, but you cannot control others'...
(this is even more obvious from a cyclist point of view)
Everyone everywhere says the same thing. It's information-free discourse.
With half baked self driving tech, you have absolutely no control..
The UK has the 2nd-lowest rate of road deaths in the world (after Sweden).
The roads in the UK are not intrinsically safe, they are very narrow both in urban and rural areas which means there are more hazards and less time to avoid them.
However, the UK has strict driver education programme. It is not easy to pass the driving test, with some people failing multiple times. It means that people only get a license when they are ready for it. Drink-driving will also get you a prison sentence and a driving ban.
Actually, paradoxically that means they are actually safer. People drive slower on narrower roads, which means that accidents are within the safe energy envelope that modern cars can absorb.
Very, very few people will ever die as a passenger or driver in a car accident at 25 mph / 40 kph. At 65mph / 100kph, the story is completely different.
The country roads one has always dumbfounded me though - why some of those have national speed limits I will never know.
The thought of doing this now scares me and I don't do this and suggest that no one else does either. But I know many people still drive like this.
Why not? Even roads with lower speed limits you're required to drive at a speed appropriate for the road, the conditions, and your vehicle; the speed limit merely sets an upper-bound, and it's not really relevant whether it's achievable. Just look at the Isle of Man where there is no national speed limits: most roads outside of towns have no speed limit, regardless of whether they're a narrow single-lane road or one of the largest roads on the island.
IIRC, the workshop was about three hours, but it was surprisingly useful. The instructors treated you like adults and not children or criminals, and they gave fairly useful tips on driving and looking out for things like lights suddenly changing, ensuring you are in the right gear, how you're supposed to react if an emergency vehicle wants you to go forward when you're by a set of traffic lights with a camera, etc.
However, on the drink driving front, given the news with Ant from Ant and Dec I think it's safe to assume that not everyone gets a prison sentence for drink driving.
Has he been sentenced?
In Scotland, the BAC limit is lower than in England and the punishment is a 12 month driving ban and fine for being over the limit - no grey areas or points or getting away with it.
In England a fine and penalty points are common, repeat offenders can be suspended and jailed. The severity of the punishment can often depend on how far over the limit you are and other factors.
The UK went through a major cultural change relating to drink driving several decades ago, it isn't viewed as acceptable, the police get tip offs on a regular basis.
https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/offences/item/excess-al...
I would think to look carefully at all directions and, if visibility allows, pass the red light, then contest the fine with an "emergrncy vehicle passing through" defence. But what is the official position?
Although, if you are at a set of traffic lights and an emergency vehicle tries to get you to cross the line, what you should do is write down the registration plate and contact the relevant service to report the driver. The instructor on this course was ex-police, and according to him police, paramedics, and firefighters in the UK are taught to not do this under any circumstance, and if they are caught trying to persuade someone to cross a red traffic light then they can get in a lot of trouble.
The only case that trumps a red traffic light is when given a signal by an authorised person (e.g., police officers, traffic officers, etc).
I think under a literal interpretation of the law you are obliged to commit an offence if you are beckoned on across a stop line at a red traffic light; you can either refuse the instruction to be beckoned on (an offence) or you can cross the stop line (an offence). That said, there's plenty of habit of the beckoning taking precedent over the lights.
Basically the only time you see any police officer instructing traffic from a vehicle is when on a motorbike, typically when they're part of an escort.
At least, that's how it works in Germany and Denmark. But I don't think Denmark has traffic light cameras. I've never seen them anyway. But I've seen them in Germany.
Of course, this is assuming you don't actually cross the entire junction, but rather just moves out into the junction, so the emergency vehicle can get through.
Police cars will have dash cams, not sure on ambulances or fire engines.
That being said, scariest thing I did on the road was going through a red light to let an ambulance through at a motorway off-ramp. You better hope everyone else has heard those sirens.
I'd also note that most European countries are hot on the heels of the UK, Sweden and Switzerland by the above measures. By comparison, the US numbers are 10.6, 12.9 and 7.1, respectively. Most European countries are well below those numbers.
Particularly in Western European and Nordic countries, the driving tests are very strict. Even for all the stereotypes, France's numbers of 5.1, 7.6 and 5.8 are quite good, and they are moving in the right direction.
Sources:
* http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_st...
* https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/road-safety-annual-r...
Notes:
I use death rate, not incidents/accidents rate.
I ignored "smaller" countries for the above listing, such as San Marino and Kiribati.
All numbers are from 2015, and they are also presented in the Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
And that's the way it should be. The driving test may not be easy, but it's not any more difficult than driving is. People should be held to a high standard when controlling high speed hunks of metal.
"but autopilot still lowers the death rate on average"
That's not what they said, they said the death rate was lower than the average. And yet you can't help hearing that it lowered the death rate. I think it's very likely turning on autopilot massively increases the rate of death for Tesla drivers, but they've managed to deflect from that so skilfully.
It is certainly designed to do that, but even for airline pilots there are limits to what is possible.
You cannot train a human to react within 1ms; that's just physiologically impossible. Nor can you train a human to fully comprehend a situation within x ms, where x depends on the situation.
So the autopilot would have to warn a human say 2x ms before an event that requires attention, where it can of course not yet know of the event, so that amounts to 'any time there could possibly be an event 2x ms in the projected future'. Which is probably: most of the time. Making the autopilot useless.
In a car, the requirement is fractions of a second.
This is a similar situation to nuclear power. With nuclear, all your waste can be kept and stored and nuclear has almost zero deaths per year. Contrast to the crazy abomination that is coal burning.
Can't find how many of these miles were driven on roads with a posted limit above 35mph
Yes automation is good, but Tesla is being needlessly reckless. They can easily be much more strict with the settings for auto-pilot but they're not.
After years of doing this (which seems to be close to what Waymo is doing if I understand correctly), the autonmous software should be way better than what is being pushed out now by Tesla and Uber (and probably a bunch of others).
That is, we have an accepted safety standard - by definition, the worst human driver with a license. If a Tesla is safer than that, the rest is theoretically preferences and economics.
I'm not saying that the regulators or consumers will accept that logic - if airlines are any example to go buy, they'll take the opportunity to push standards higher - but I think the point is interesting and important. It is easy to smother progress if we don't acknowledge that the world is a dangerous place and everything has elements of risk.
I'm any case, "statistically more safe" is a weak argument, e.g. we would be terrified of boarding a plane if they were merely statistically more safe than driving (by a small margin).
Don't know why you're treating that as a hypothetical. Many people are terrified of flying and it is safer than driving.
Certainly auto-pilot is worth it if the driver is drunk. I wish that all cars were fitted with alcohol measuring devices so that the cars won't start if you're over the limit.
Drink driving is still a massive problem in Belgium where I live. Although you get severely fined (thousands of euros) it's up to a judge to decide if you should have your licence taken away [1]. Typically you have to sit by the side of the road for a few hours then you're allowed to continue. In the UK it is a minimum 1 year ban.
Is it? Can it be proved controlling for all variables?
I'm cynical enough to want to wait for it to actually be that good before bestowing the marketing goodwill on the company.
"Might be someday" doesn't really cut it for me any more.
Let's wait until we get there, then evaluate the situation.
The most we have to go on for a rough approximation of safety is the nebulous and ill-defined "disengagements" in the public CA reports. From what I can tell, there's no strong algorithmic or safety analysis of these self-driving systems at all.
The climate about these things is sour because the self-driving car technology companies seem to want to spin the narrative and blame anybody but themselves for the deaths they were causing, and just praying they'll cause less of them once this tech goes global.
The usual description of disengagements: "Disengage for a perception discrepancy" or "Precautionary takeover to address perception".
Except when referring to others, then its plain English: "Disengage for a recklessly behaving road user" or "Other road user behaving poorly".
> For the purposes of this section, “disengagement” means a deactivation of the autonomous mode when a failure of the autonomous technology is detected or when the safe operation of the vehicle requires that the autonomous vehicle test driver disengage the autonomous mode and take immediate manual control of the vehicle.
However, some self-driving car manufacturers have been testing the rules quite a lot by choosing which disengagements to report[1]. Waymo reportedly "runs a simulation" to figure out whether to include the disengagement in its report, but there's no mention of what the simulation is or how it might fail in similar ways the technology inside the car did! Thus, the numbers in the reports are likely deflated from being actually every single disengagement.
[0] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e... [1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/sel...
With all the games they play with the numbers, Waymo still reports 63 safety-related disengagements for a mere 352,000 miles. This doesn't sound like an acceptable level of safety.
The surprising part is that it appears that Waymo is planning to start deploying their system in 2018. How can they even consider it with this amount of disengagements?
These are public roads, driving a dangerous cars put other people at risk.
Inexperienced drivers cannot be avoided, but many states try mitigate the risk by limiting teenage drivers.
But my point is that whether to allow a vehicle that is not safer than a reasonable human driver should be not left to the car owner alone - there are other stakeholders whose interests must be taken into account.
[1] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/teenagers/fatalityfacts/te...
I think the issue with nuclear power is more the size of the blast radius. For example, the U.S. population within 50 miles of the Indian Point Energy Center is >17,000,000 including New York City [1]. The blast radius of a self-driving car is a few dozen people at best. It's not evident that nuclear technology is uniformly better than solar or wind, but it's probably expected-value positive.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limerick_Generating_Station
The "current climate" is a backlash to the cavalier "move fast and break things" externality-disregarding culture of the last 10 years or so. We should be extremely conservative when it comes to tools that can potentially maim or kill other people. Not valuing human life should be an aberration.
The flawed assumption behind this thinking is that all accidents have "accidental" factors. Alcohol and drugs and the poor decisions of young men are _huge_ components of that statistic. You also have to consider that motorcycles make up a not insignificant portion (12%) of those numbers.
It also completely ignores the pedestrian component (16%) which is due to a huge number of factors, of which, driver attentiveness is only one. So many pedestrians die, at night, on the sides class B highways that it's silly.
EDIT: To add, Texas has more fatalities on the roadway than California. Not per capita, _total_. This is clearly a multi-component problem.
So in fatalities statistics the fair thing is to compare Tesla with similar cars.
But safety is not in my opinion the main rationale for self driving cars. Convenience and maximisation of traffic are.
I think the convenience will mean more traffic since many who now use public transport will use their self driving car instead. So in total autopilots could be worse for the environment and require even more roads
While there is ongoing research into novel types of batteries made from more common materials, I wouldn't be surprised if the next war is about lithium instead of oil.
But there is still an immense environmental benefit: they will pollute in places (industrial areas, mines) that are not places where people live (big cities). So the population will benefit a lot from moving where the pollution takes place. And it's not just air. Noise pollution, dirty buildings, etc.
Is that so? The larger engines in fossil power plants are more efficient than a fleet of small ICEs, but I don't know how this added efficiency compares against those inefficiencies along the way that you mentioned (and of course, a complete picture also needs to take into account the energy cost of distributing gas to cars).
European safety tests rank pedestrian protection in addition to passenger protection https://www.euroncap.com/en/vehicle-safety/the-ratings-expla...
Outfitted Volvos will actually lift the hood in an impact to protect pedestrians https://support.volvocars.com/uk/cars/Pages/owners-manual.as...
The traffic issue it won't be actually solved with this kind of self driving cars, you would need new infrastructure, like modern metros/trains.
The dream of fast moving self driving cars, like a sword, I don't think is possible without a huge infrastructure change and I think the sword of cars would need a central point of control.
I do not think this will happen in an existing city for at least 20 years.
I can imagine scenarios where a glitch or something else could cause tons of traffic issues in a city with only self driving cars.
I am not against self driving cars, I don't like the fact that this startups arrived and push alpha quality stuff on the public roads, it will create a bad image for the entire field.
And yes it will create its own problems. Like if these cars get hacked, they will cause serious damages.
Adding some extra markings, special electronic markings for this cars is not a solution, and in this 20 years since the traffic is mixed you can't consider lifting the speed limits or changing the intersection rules, so I don't see how it helps the traffic (except maybe on small streets if you consider that people won't want to own their car and will use any random car. this random cars should be super clean and cheap to make people not own their own)
Your opinion will be irrelevant--the insurance companies get the final say. When that safety point arrives, your insurance rates will change to make manual driving unaffordable.
I see people saying that. Why would insurance be more expensive than today--implying that manual driving becomes more dangerous once self-driving cars become common? It's already a common pattern that assistive safety (and anti-theft) systems tend to carry an insurance discount versus not having them.
This means that the insurance companies with more "manual" drivers will be paying out more often and will adjust the insurance rates to compensate.
I don’t think it has anything to do with technology and automation. People are just very bad at reasoning with probabilities. This is why lotteries are so popular. And it is fuelled by unscrupulous (and even less apt at grasping probabilities) media trying to make money out of sensionalist headlines. How many times a week am I told that x will cause the end of the world, replace x by flu pandemics, Ebola, global warming, cancer as a result of eating meat or using smartphones, etc.
But classifying risks is one thing. Worrying in your daily life to the point of opposing a public policy is another. An asteroid wiping out life on earth is an even fatter tail risk, but the probability is so low that it is not worth worrying about. People have not rational reason to worry about ebola, terrorism, or plane crashes.
You assume you know the probability distributions, you compare them and determine that nuclear will kill less than coal burning.
Except that you might have never observed a black swan event before (eg. massive sabotage of nuclear plants).
So the probability distributions you inferred from past events might be wrong.
The case of a lottery is different as the probability distribution of outcomes can be determined with certainty.
Exactly this. People will not accept being hurt in accidents involving AI, but will accept being in accidents caused by human error. There is no way this will change, and car manufacturers should also have realized this by now.
As far as I can see, the only viable solution to the "not quite an autopilot" problem that tesla (and maybe others) has created for themselves is this: Just make the car sound an alarm and slow down as soon as the driver takes his eyes off the road or his hands off the wheel. The first car that doesn't do this should be one that is so good it doesn't have a driver fallback requirement at all - which I think is two decades out.
It’s like if you said “I don’t get why people are concerned with every kid bringing a gun to school, if that would make the schools 100 times safer then shouldn’t we do it? Even if there’s an interim “learning period” where they are much less safe, doesn’t the end justify the means?”
I really can’t fathom the mindset of people who honestly believe that the only way forwards with self-driving tech is to put it into the market prematurely and kill people. In 10-15 years we’ll have safe robust systems in either case, let’s not be lenient with companies who kill costumers by trying to move to fast and “win the race”. Arguing from statistics about deaths without taking responsibilities into account is absurd. Would it be ok for a cigarette company to sell a product that eliminated cancer risks but randomly killed costumers as long as they do the math and show that the total death count decreases? Hell no.
including
> There is additional controversy, it should be noted, about the proposed level 2. In level 2, the system drives, but it is not trusted, and so a human must always be watching and may need to intervene on very short notice -- sub-second -- to correct things if it makes a mistake. [...] As such, while some believe this level is a natural first step on the path to robocars, others believe it should not be attempted, and that only a car able to operate unsupervised without needing urgent attention should be sold.
Defining safe errors might be a challenge though.
Tesla has been criticised all along for both its marketing and allowing long periods of unattended driving assistance.
Train drivers are the closest thing and they have a lot of equipment that forces them to stay alert.
Personally I think that autopilot should only take over when the driver is unwell or that it thinks there will be a crash.
Even when driving full time drivers get distracted. So when the car is doing the driving humans will get bored and won't be able to respond in time.
Autopilot however is always on and never distracted but doesn't work in some cases.
As does Cadillac's Super Cruise system which is not getting the respect it should -- including by GM itself.
Except they sometimes fall asleep: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-39457148
> http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/zugunglueck-von-bad-ai... (german only)
That might not be worth the full cost of autopilot (particularly compared with lane keepers), but it's a thing.
Either it requires the driver to occasionally take over and handle a situation on short notice, then the driver should have hands on the wheel and eyes forward (and the car should ensure this by alerting and slowing down immediately if the driver isn't paying attention).
Or the driver isn't required to pay attention and take over occasionally, and then it's fine to reply to that email on the phone while driving. I see no future in which there is a possible middle ground between these two levels of autonomy.
Just like we will probably never accept (neither socially nor legally) autonomous drivers that aren't at least an order of magnitude safer than human drivers, we will likely continue to accept drivers not paying attention to their manual controls - but we do not accept drivers not paying enough attention to take over after their AI driver.
> nobody would buy a car with this deliberately annoying handling.
Exactly. And since this is the only way of making a reasonably safe level 3 car, this is also why many car manufacturers have actively chosen to not develop level 3 autonomous cars (because they are either not safe OR annoying - and either way it's a tough sale)
In the morning, I leave at 5:30am. There is constant moving traffic at 60-80mph on the first leg of my trip (6 miles). I drive manually, or with AP, and I pay full attention, 100% of this time. If I'm using AP, it's because it's at least as reliable as I am staying in lanes.
I then change interstates. I do this in manual mode almost every time. AP isn't great at dealing with changing multiple lanes quickly and tightly like traffic often requires. Once I'm on the new interstate, I get into my intended lane (second from the left), put the car in AP, and we have what you'd consider stop and go traffic for a few miles. At this point, I open the can of soda I brought. I keep a hand on the wheel, and I pay attention, but I'm more relaxed than I was earlier, when I was doing 60-80mph. At this point, the only thing that I need to do is to respond to someone jumping into my lane and cutting me off (which the AP deals with, but I have more faith in my ability to slam the brakes), or road debris, which at this speed, is not a problem that needs less than a second of response time.
There's a slow steady 40mph drive that I'm in full AP for, drinking my soda and paying attention, and then the traffic thins out, and I notice that I'm starting to lag behind cars, because my AP has a set max of 70MPH from back where the speed limit was 65mph (even though I was only going 20-40). At this point, both hands on the wheel, full attention, and I increase the AP max to 75 or 80, depending on how much traffic I'm in. I switch it back over to manual to make the lane changes necessary to hit my exit, and I'm manual until I park my car at work.
On the way home, I'm in stop and go traffic for an hour. When I'm 'going', I'm going 5-10mph. I am in full AP mode 95% of this time, and I could take a nap at this point, and it wouldn't actually be unsafe. I'm safer with AP than manual at this point, because my attention fades if not and I could drift lanes, or bump the car in front of me. Which I've seen happen to other people countless times, and which just increases the amount of time everyone else is in traffic, too.
Even the most egregious lane jumper can't get into my lane too fast for AP at this stage of my commute. I just set the follow distance to 2, and listen to audio books while I browse twitter or facebook. I look at what's going on out the windshield, but it's virtually unchanging. Like the thousands of people surrounding me, I'm slowly creeping forward, waiting on the 20-30 miles to pass. For an hour and a half.
The bottom line is that people don’t accept any risk at all involving autonomous driving - regardless of whether the alternative/old tech was worse. So, to put it very bluntly, people accept being hit by a texting person not paying attention for 1 second. People don’t accept being hit by a person in a level 3 autonomous vehicle not paying attention for 10 seconds - and that’s regardless of the relative safety of the two systems.
Obviously if you use Autopilot in bumper to bumper traffic this is an improvement, and a huge improvement over texting while manually driving. But texting at highway speed is thankfully rare when manually driving and should be just as outlawed with AP.
I should not need to trust you -- if I trusted you, why would we need autopilot at all? Humans are either qualified to drive cars or they aren't. If they are qualified, we don't need autopilot. If they aren't qualified, autopilot should never require human intervention. What we have now is a half-measure that assumes that neither humans nor autopilots can be trusted, but that some combination of those two untrustworthy parties can somehow be trusted. It doesn't make any sense.
Whether you trust others is immaterial; statistics will be the final arbitor. If Autopilot still causes fatal accidents, but fewer fatal accidents than humans alone, how could you argue against such a safety system? What of the lives saved that wouldn’t have been if we demand an entirely fault proof system prior to implementation? Who are you (not you specially, but the aggregate) to take those lives away because of irrationality?
It may be irrational, but I can forgive a human, I cannot forgive an AI.
This claim was immediately called into suspicion when it was first published, and the NHTSA is currently facing a FOIA lawsuit for refusing to release data to independent researchers.
http://www.safetyresearch.net/blog/articles/quality-control-...
https://jalopnik.com/feds-cant-say-why-they-claim-teslas-aut...
You believe independent verification of study results are "immaterial"? OK.
The NHTSA made a determination and I’m using it as a data point.
So does any car with automatic emergency braking and/or or forward collision warning (links below).
The problem here is, this Tesla drove head-on into the gore point. And previously, it drove right into the side of a huge truck. So... can it be trusted? Your call.
https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/automatic-emergen...
" IIHS data show rear-end collisions are cut by 50 percent on vehicles with AEB and FCW. "
A lot of human-led accidents sound just as silly when stated this simply, so it's not relevant to the comparison.
More to the point, I think each of the deaths would be exactly as tragic, no more no less, if the sequence of events was complicated.
[0] https://jalopnik.com/two-years-on-a-father-is-still-fighting...
edit: corrected a typo
Also, in response to the statistics you cite: I wouldn't expect the statistics to be that far off the average because AutoPilot is limited in it's possible use cases at the moment. Even in cars equipped with AutoPilot people are always still driving the car for at least some part of the trip. Therefore I wouldn't expect the impact of AutoPilot to lead to a significant deviation from the average. Plus, I'd speculate that the crash rate per mile is probably higher on a Tesla then an average car -- I'm thinking of like a Honda Civic. Faster cars probably get in more crashes, right? Maybe not, who knows. Regardless it should be possible to control for this and assess the effect of AutoPilot on per mile crash rates by comparing rates for Teslas with and without AutoPilot. This is somewhat complicated by the fact that even Teslas without AutoPilot have automatic collision avoidance, but should shed some light on whether AutoPilot is making people crash more or less.
I suspect the unfortunate reality is people die on the journey to improvement. Once we decide this technology has passed a reasonable threshold, it now becomes a case of continual improvement. And as horrible as this sounds this is not new. Consider how much safer cars are than 20 years ago and how many lives modern safety features save. Or go for a drive in a 50 year of sports car and see how safe you feel. And in 50 years we'll look back at today's systems in the same way we look at the days of no seat belts.
The very challenging, and somewhat unusual given the life/death stakes, aspect of this domain in general is that general 'easy' logic works for 99% of the scenarios. But in the remaining 1% -- and I mean every single possible last scenario, whether probable or not -- the "what to do" is so much more difficult. Enough time to do it? Can be done safely? Etc.
The reason the car turns control back over to the human at all is because the vehicle presumably does NOT have any maneuvers left which are high-confidence -- whether that's because the sensing equipment failed, the software failed or failed to interpret the data satisfactorily, or there's just no "good move" left, or any other number of reasons, etc...
seriously, i slow down when i am unsure of the conditions, i surely have never evaluated every last scenario, and i have never run into a concrete barrier.
Mental experiment: which is preferable - colliding with a static barrier at an unchecked 70MPH or getting rammed from behind by a truck at a relative speed of 30MPH (assuming that's how much you've braked by)?
That said - slowing down =/= emergency stop - that truck behind you should leave enough room in front of it to come to a complete stop - unless you've cut in front of it. I'm probably ranting, but I'll repeat this as I've witnessed it far too many times: do not cut in front of loaded semi-trucks. The gap in front of them is intentional and it wasn't meant for you - it's their braking distance - they have ridiculous momentum and they can squash you!
OTOH, the car has probably saved me from at least one accident where traffic ahead of me suddenly slowed down right as my attention relaxed. The _only_ correct way of using these systems is to treat them as an extra level of safety on top of your responsibilities as a driver. An "extra set of eyes" to help you avoid an accident while leaving you as the primary driver of the vehicle.
Human+automation is very powerful! However, I don't think we are far from self-driving beating human alone.
It's not perfect but it sure beats the driver being so used to it they start doing other things like watching movies on their laptop.
30 seconds is a HUGE amount of time to react on a highway. You'll be long dead by the time another 25 seconds pass if the accident happens just 5 seconds after you took your hands off the wheel. And this is exactly what happened in the recent crash.
Also, if Tesla intends to shield itself behind a beta status for their autopilot system until it is perfect, I think this beta status will remain even longer then the time GMail was in beta. At least, in this case they should own this problem and somewhat hardcode a meaningful warning at such intersections or do something.
The question seems to be which is better:
1) A car very intelligently helping a human drive better.
2) Or a car mostly driving well itself but needing humans to very rarely override fatal crashes.
I prefer 1)
I'm not sure there are any studies comparing these things, since "human driving but lots of extra tech help" is harder to quantify and doesn't have all the data going back to the mothership like Tesla.
If they want beta software on a private track, that's their (and their insurance company's) problem.
Different environment (and stakes), but I observed the same thing happening a couple of times during IT incident response. The automation crashed/failed/got into a situation it could not automatically fix, and the occurrence was rare enough that people actually panicked and it took them quite a while to fix what in the end was a simple issue. They just didn't have the "manual skill" (in one case, the tools to actually go and solve the issue without manually manipulating databases) anymore.
I dont trust anything from Elon anymore, big talker and lots of hype.
Not to mention there are things most people do defensively while driving that autopilot doesn't: anticipate a vehicle coming into my lane by both looking at the wheel position and the lateral movement. Autopilot ignores those pieces of information and data until it's in basically in your lane.
Personally I feel I have to be more on guard and attentive with it on because I know their are fatal bugs.
It seems like AutoPilot users take their hands off the wheel regularly, and I just don't see how that is safe with this type of system.
Isn't it true that the thing cannot detect a stationary object in its path if the vehicle is traveling at above 50kph? If that is true, then I think this is an extremely dangerous situation that the owners of these vehicles are in...
That's what 'too good' is supposed to be.
The solution is easy, but probably not what many would like to hear: ban all "self-driving" or "near-self-driving" solutions from being activated by the driver, and only allow the ones that have gone through very rigorous and extensive government testing (in a standardized test).
When the government certifies the car for Level 4 or Level 5, and assuming the standardized test has strict requirements like 1 intervention at 100,000 miles or whatever is something around 10-100x better than our best drivers, then the car can be allowed on the road.
Any lesser technology can still be used in other cars, bit instead of being a "self-driving mode" it should actually just assist you in the sense of auto-braking when an imminent accident is about to happen, or maybe just warn you that an imminent accident is about to happen, which could still significantly improve driver safety on the road until we figure out Level 5 cars.